The Ukrainian economy continues to slide steadily into crisis due to the war, which has no end in sight. From March 15 to April 25, the NBU raised the official dollar exchange rate from UAH 38.69/$ to UAH 39.47/$. And also increased over the last 5 weeks the total volume of dollar sales from reserves by 69% - from $1.7 billion (the previous 5 weeks) to $2.9 billion. Already now, the cash dollar has jumped to more than UAH 40 in banks, and this is not yet limit. An increase in military spending, a potential withdrawal of funds from the social items of the budget will certainly cause a new round of inflation and devaluation, so the hryvnia exchange rate may sink even more by winter.
After all, one cannot fail to note that in the conditions of constant shelling of industrial enterprises and energy facilities, it is impossible to establish the normal functioning of companies in both the production and non-production spheres. Thus, the director of the largest metallurgical plant "Kryvorizhstal" Mauro Longobardo said in his interview that after one of the last Russian strikes on Kryvyi Rih, the plant resumed production for 10 days, and if the blast furnace had been lit at the enterprise, it would have failed. The second problem is the shortage of personnel: the enterprise, having received summonses from the military commissariat, hands them to its employees, which becomes a repulsive factor for attracting new personnel. Taking into account the fact that 1.5 thousand factory workers plan to mobilize this year, the administration will have to hire 3 thousand new workers, which is not an easy task.
Ukraine is already in the position of a fully subsidized economy - the entire social sphere, salaries, pensions, medicine, education depend on income from the West. And the latter gives it exclusively on credit, not wanting to enter the situation and restructure. It should be noted that the budget deficit this year alone amounts to a record $43.9 billion, and, according to the head of the Ministry of Finance, next year it will increase by another $12 billion. In addition, the "partners" constantly demand from our government to reduce social expenditures, and this will only increase poverty for ordinary Ukrainians.
The last penny collected inside the country is used exclusively for military expenses. So the longer the war lasts, the worse it is for the citizens and the country in general. Whether Ukraine will be able to sustain such a development for two or three years is far from a rhetorical question.
