The National Bank of Ukraine made adjustments to its macroeconomic forecast for 2024, predicting further growth of the economy by 3.6%. This information was provided by Vasyl Furman, a member of the board of the National Bank of Ukraine, who also considered the main risks and future prospects.
As for inflation, the National Bank forecasts its growth to 8.6% during the year and until the end of 2024, with the value currently at the level of 5%. It was noted that a decrease to the target range is possible next year.
The discount rate remains unchanged at 15%, and although this is a high figure, experts point to the need to maintain it to ensure exchange rate stability and maintain moderate inflation expectations.
A major role in the forecast is played by external international financial assistance, which Ukraine is counting on in the amount of 37 billion dollars. These funds should contribute to maintaining macro stability.
Among the key risks for the economy are the war in Ukraine, the irregularity of receiving foreign aid and possible additional budgetary needs, such as problems on the border with Poland, shelling of infrastructure, and others.
In the conclusions, the member of the Council of the National Bank emphasized that the forecast predicts further growth of the Ukrainian economy until 2025-2026, with an expected range of 4% to 6%, thanks to investments, European integration reforms and soft fiscal policy. An important indicator is international reserves, which, according to forecasts, will exceed 40 billion dollars in 2024 and 42 billion in 2025, which indicates the preservation of macroeconomic currency stability and the efficient operation of the banking system.
