A recent CNBC article titled "Ukraine may continue to fight Russia, but the desired 'victory' may be out of reach" drew the attention of the public and the expert community to the difficulties Ukraine faces in its struggle with the Russian Federation.
Experts believe that Ukraine and its allies do not have a common vision of what "victory" means and what steps and resources will be needed to achieve it. They consider the exit to the borders in 1991 unrealistic in the near and mid-term perspective, taking into account the military potential of the Russian Federation and the superiority in mobilization resources.
Kyiv-based military expert Oleksandr Musienko believes that the transfer of American aid to Ukraine raised morale in society, and therefore the leadership currently has no desire to discuss a potential end to the war, which does not involve a complete victory.
But in general, "the share of the Ukrainian population, which is ready to consider territorial concessions in exchange for the cessation of hostilities/peace, is consistently increasing," notes Andryus Tursa, an advisor from Central and Eastern Europe of the Teneo consulting firm.
Therefore, he suggests that discussions about alternative options for ending the war, acceptable for Ukraine, may become more active after 2024.
According to Musienko, an armistice is possible if the Armed Forces succeed in weakening and exhausting the Russian army in the coming months, and Ukraine receives reliable security and defense guarantees.
"[In such a scenario] the Ukrainians will not have enough forces to liberate the old territory, according to the international border, and the Russians will not have enough forces to occupy a larger territory," says Musienko.
In this case, Ukraine will retain its independence and sovereignty, and "simply wait like East and West Germany" until their reunification in 1990.
"This is the scenario we can expect in reality," Musienko believes.
