Ukraine may be defeated by Russia in 2024, according to the former commander of the Joint Forces of Great Britain Richard Barrons.
Defeat, according to him, will not consist in the complete military defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but in the fact that "Ukraine may feel that it cannot win."
"And when it comes to that point, why would people continue to fight and die just to defend the indefensible?" Barrons said, as quoted by the BBC.
He added that Ukraine is not yet at this stage, but problems with ammunition, personnel and air defense means pose a threat that Russia could launch a major offensive.
The general believes that it will take place "at some point this summer" with an attempt to break through Ukrainian positions. "And if this happens, we risk that Russian troops will then enter areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces will not be able to stop them," Barrons said.
The problem for the Armed Forces is that the Russians can choose the direction of their main strike, and Ukraine will be forced to defend the entire front line, "which, of course, they cannot do." Whereas the Russians knew exactly where the Ukrainians would attack last summer.
The experts interviewed by the BBC name the three most likely, in their opinion, directions of attack by the Russian Federation - Kharkiv, Donbas and Zaporizhzhia.
Experts write that Kharkiv is "definitely vulnerable" due to its proximity to the Russian border.
"Will Ukraine continue to function as a viable entity if Kharkiv falls? Yes, analysts say, but it will be a catastrophic blow to both morale and the economy," the newspaper writes.
Regarding Donbas, no specific directions of attack have been indicated. But it is mentioned that Ukraine "surprisingly" defended Bakhmut and Avdiivka, suffering great losses, which, according to experts, it cannot afford (unlike Russia).
As for Zaporizhzhia, this city is an attractive target for the Russian Federation, which allows it to cut off part of Ukrainian logistics through the Dnipro. But the attack here is complicated by the fact that it can be recognized in advance.
"The so-called Surovykin line, consisting of three echelons of defense, is surrounded by the largest and most densely packed minefield in the world. Russia could partially dismantle it, but its preparations will probably be discovered," experts say.
Retired General Barrons suggests that Russia will not have enough forces to reach the Dnipro, but it will achieve certain successes in the summer offensive. "It won't have big enough or good enough forces to break through to the [Dnieper] river... but the war will turn in Russia's favor," the ex-commander said.
At the same time, Russia's strategic goal this year may not even be territorial. "This may be an attempt to crush Ukraine's fighting spirit and convince its Western supporters that this war is a hopeless case," the newspaper writes.
