Ukraine's default is getting closer: in August 2024, the term of the agreement with private creditors on the two-year postponement of debt payments expires. Everyone hoped that during the negotiations the creditors would agree to the further restructuring of the debts, because Ukraine will not be able to repay them in the summer of 2024.
However, Ukraine has not yet been able to agree with the owners of 20% of the bonds on debt restructuring for $20 billion. Creditors rejected Kyiv's proposal to reduce the value of currency bonds by 60% and proposed to reduce it by 22%. But here the IMF came to our side and declared that this would lead to non-fulfillment of key debt obligations. The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance also proposed to launch a contingency instrument, payments under which could begin only after 2027 and would depend on Ukraine's fulfillment of tax revenue targets set by the IMF.
It has been announced that the negotiations will continue, and the head of the Ministry of Finance, Marchenko, expects that they will be successfully concluded by August 1. However, against the background of the absence of new agreements, Eurobonds of Ukraine immediately fell in price by 1.5 cents.
If the default does happen, it will be the third "technical default" for us in the last ten years. The country has accumulated an unsustainable foreign debt due to the war, and if it is not closed, the Ukrainian economy will face the full set of consequences standard for a sovereign default: capital flight, devaluation of the hryvnia, and economic decline. The government will further cut social spending - pensions, benefits and benefits. Prices will rise, living standards will fall, and businesses will collapse.
