Ukraine risks losing the energy war with Russia already this winter, if the Western allies, in particular the United States and Britain, do not reconsider their position on the authorization of strikes with long-range weapons. Politico writes , the Biden administration has not yet given Ukraine the opportunity to use American long-range missiles to strike Russian airfields.
At the same time, Great Britain may lift restrictions on the use of its Storm Shadow missiles, but this may not be enough to ensure the effective defense of Ukraine. Former US ambassador to NATO, Kurt Volker, emphasizes that without access to American missiles, Ukraine will remain vulnerable to future attacks.
A turning point in the energy war
Ukrainian officials fear that the coming winter will be a decisive moment in the war for energy security. Russia's air strike tactics, which have adapted after last year's setbacks, are now enhanced by the supply of Iran's Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles. These missiles will allow Russia to hit logistics centers, ammunition depots and communication hubs in the rear of Ukrainian troops.
The danger is that these Iranian missiles could free up Russian resources to strike civilian infrastructure, especially Ukraine's energy system, with its own missiles. Key power substations that supply electricity to the country's nuclear power plants may be targeted by the Russians.
A threat to the nuclear power industry of Ukraine
Today, about 55% of electricity in Ukraine is produced at three operating nuclear power plants. As noted by energy expert Mykhailo Gonchar, in case of attacks on the substations that feed these stations, a dangerous shutdown of the reactors may occur. This may lead to the risk of a nuclear incident, which will have catastrophic consequences not only for Ukraine's energy system, but also for its economy and military capability.
"If the operation of three nuclear power plants is paralyzed, then the energy war will be lost for Ukraine, which will significantly weaken its position in possible peace negotiations," Politico .
The role of Western weapons
The Biden administration began reviewing restrictions on the use of long-range weapons when Russia stepped up airstrikes on critical energy targets in August 2024. Substations that provide operational electricity for nuclear power plants have become especially important. However, without the ability to strike Russian airfields and the facilities that support these attacks, the chances of a successful defense of Ukraine this winter remain in question.
Ukraine needs not only Storm Shadow missiles, but also access to American ATACMS in order to counter a new wave of Russian attacks. The lack of such an opportunity endangers not only the energy security of the country, but also the ability to wage a long-term struggle on the battlefield.
