Ukraine is looking for answers regarding the crash of the Russian plane

Ukrainian officials on Thursday made an effort to release details of a deadly plane crash over the border with Russia, asking citizens for patience while they investigate Moscow's claims that Ukraine shot down a Russian warplane carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on his country's special services to determine what happened and conduct an international investigation into the disaster, and also accused Russia of participating in wartime propaganda regarding this episode.

The disaster and Russia's claims that Ukraine shot down a plane with its own soldiers on board pose an unpleasant challenge for the government in Kyiv, which is trying to prepare its citizens for a third year of war. Ukraine is on the defensive on the battlefield and considering a new mobilization that is likely to be unpopular domestically, while struggling daily to gain critically needed support from the West.

The plane crashed in the Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine, and everyone on board was killed, the Russian Ministry of Defense and the governor of the region reported on Wednesday. The agency reported that 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war were on board the plane, who were to be released as part of a prisoner exchange. Russian statements could not be independently verified.
The cause of the crash remains unknown, although Ukrainian officials do not deny the fact that the plane was shot down. They say they cannot confirm that there were Ukrainian military personnel on board the plane, who were on their way to exchange prisoners.
But Ukrainian military intelligence on Wednesday hinted at the possibility of a tragic mistake, admitting that the exchange was planned and saying that Russia had not warned the Ukrainian military about the prisoner-of-war transfer to the border, as it had done in previous exchanges.
On Thursday, the head of the Russian parliament's defense committee, Andriy Kartapolov, denied the Ukrainian version of events, saying that Moscow had informed the Ukrainian military that the plane was carrying prisoners of war, albeit in advance. According to him, the military intelligence of Ukraine was "officially warned" 15 minutes before the plane approached the border area. It was not possible to independently confirm this claim.

The differing versions highlight one of the defining features of the war: a constant lack of clarity with the facts obscured by misinformation and competing agendas. Russia promotes its dominant messages for propaganda purposes at home and abroad. Ukraine does not want to publicize any military failures. Tragedies and turning points in the war were clouded by uncertainty, sometimes for weeks or longer.

Officials in Kyiv said it was too early to draw conclusions about the disaster and that relatives should wait for confirmation from the authorities in Ukraine. "We have not seen any signs of such a large number of people on board the plane, regardless of whether they are citizens of Ukraine or not," Dmytro Lubinets, the country's human rights commissioner, told the media on Thursday.

Ukraine's domestic intelligence service said on Thursday it had opened an investigation into the plane crash as a possible war crime, without giving any indication of how it would do so.

On Thursday, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting called by Russia to discuss the shooting. Deputy Ambassador of Ukraine to the UN Khrystyna Hayovyshyn told the Council that Russia is responsible for the disaster. According to her, on January 24, Ukraine safely transported the Russian military to the agreed place, waiting for the exchange, which did not take place.

"The Ukrainian side was not informed about the need to ensure the safety of the airspace in the region of Belgorod during this specified period, as it was done repeatedly in the past," said Ms. Hayovyshyn. "Ukraine was not informed about the number of vehicles, routes and means of transportation of prisoners. This alone can represent deliberate actions of Russia aimed at threatening the lives and safety of prisoners."

The deputy ambassador of Russia to the UN, Dmytro Polyansky, called her statements "paranoid nonsense." He noted that the details of the plane's route were given to the Ukrainian side in advance, and that "denying it is pointless." No independent group visited the crash site. Ukraine requested access to the Red Cross and the UN.
The Red Cross office in Kyiv issued a statement on Thursday saying it had not brokered the prisoner exchange and had not received lists of those to be exchanged.
"We understand the stress and anxiety that such news can bring to families who have been separated from their loved ones for months," the statement said. "We will continue to do everything we can to help determine the fate of the POWs."
According to the Geneva Conventions — treaties that define the rules of war and the treatment of prisoners — Russia is obliged to notify the Red Cross about the movement of prisoners, Mr. Lubinets said. Russia, he added, bears "full responsibility for the lives and health of prisoners of war."

According to him, the Government of Ukraine asked the Red Cross whether it had been notified in advance about the prisoners' trip to the border area, which is a zone of active hostilities.

Complicating any investigation by Ukraine is the fact that Russia has most of the key details about the episode, including who was involved. Ukrainians are deeply skeptical of any information coming from Russia, which they believe intends to turn the disaster into a painful ordeal for the families of the prisoners.

Kremlin spokesman Dmytro Peskov said again on Thursday that Ukraine had shot its own soldiers and called it a "horrific act." This incident, he said, called into question the prospects of future prisoner exchanges.

Groups that monitor Russian propaganda say Moscow is pushing a message to the West: Ukraine cannot be trusted with long-range weapons. Russian social media posts accused Ukraine of killing its own people.

For example, one post on the Telegram social network quoted the Russian official who runs the occupied territory, Volodymyr Rogov, as saying that the Ukrainian military deliberately shot down a plane carrying prisoners to discourage the soldiers from surrendering. "The regime is in a panic," the message says.
On Wednesday, Mr. Zelensky said in his nightly video message: "It is obvious that the Russians are playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners, the feelings of their relatives, and the emotions of our society."
The Institute for the Study of War, an American organization, writes in an analysis that Russian propagandists "seized the Il-76 disaster to sow internal discontent in Ukraine and undermine the will of the West to continue providing military support to Ukraine."

Hanna Chabarai, an analyst of Russian propaganda at the Institute of Mass Information, an independent organization in Ukraine, noted: "The microphone is in Russia's hands."

"This is emotional terrorism because relatives and friends of prisoners of war are very scared," she added.

International organizations, courts and independent news investigations have repeatedly challenged Russia's claims of war, refuting Moscow's denials that it shot down a civilian airliner over eastern Ukraine in 2014 and blew up a major dam on the Dnipro River last year.
An explosion in July 2022 at the Olenivskyi camp for Ukrainian prisoners of war killed at least 51 inmates and prompted a months-long effort by Ukraine and international organizations to find out what happened.
Russia claimed that Ukraine hit this place with an American missile. But a United Nations investigation eventually found that a US missile could not have hit the site and accused Russia of holding prisoners of war near the front line.
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