In Ukraine, there is an ongoing discussion about the transition to renewable energy sources and the gradual abandonment of coal. However, economist Oleksiy Kush believes that such a step may be too premature for a country facing economic difficulties and energy dependence.
Does Ukraine need its own coal, or where is the "green transition" headed?
And I will start not with coal, but with the forecast for oil consumption, since this hydrocarbon is a key energy resource, and its price and consumption volume are an energy benchmark.
So, the forecast for oil from OPEC World Oil Outlook:
The total global demand for primary energy carriers in conventional oil equivalent will increase by 24% by 2050, or from that year's 301 million conventional barrels per day to more than 374 million.
It is not only about oil, but also about all primary energy carriers. That is, the consumption of primary energy in the world will continue to grow, despite the technology.
At the same time, oil will remain the key energy carrier, despite the decrease in its share in the global energy balance from 31% to 29.3%. As you can see, the reduction is really purely conditional.
And the global demand for oil will grow by almost 18 million barrels on average by the middle of the century. per day from the current basic 100-103 million to more than 120 million bars. per day
In this context, the question of the influence of the "green transition" on the consumption of primary energy resources in the world remains important.
Now there are two irreconcilable camps: some believe that the "green course" will sharply collapse the demand for fossil fuels, others laugh at this hypothesis.
My attitude towards the "green course" is roughly this.
Switching to alternative energy sources, such as electric vehicles, undoubtedly reduces the demand for fossil fuels. But only within the framework of the general increasing trend of energy demand.
That is, the demand for energy resources in the world is increasing faster than the technological progress of the "green course" and, even more so, faster than the real technical readiness and mass market.
The second gold billion emerging in China is shaping this long-term upward trend in energy demand.
It is one thing when a family of ten people has one light bulb, and the means of transportation is a bicycle, and quite another when the middle class in China (which is already 400 million people) strives for a Western standard of consumption: an apartment, a house, household appliances, air conditioners, two or three cars per family, vacation flights, mass consumption of goods and services, the production of which again requires energy, and much more.
And in the near future in such countries as India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and others, the third golden billion will appear.
This is what leads to the fact that the consumption of coal in the world, in general, increases. Primarily due to China: growth from 12 exajoules in 1965 to 136 in 2023. That is, more than 11 times. China now accounts for 56% of global coal consumption.
And this compensated for the decrease in coal consumption in Europe, the USA and other countries of the world from 40 to 25 exajoules, that is, the consumption of coal in the world fell by 15 exajoules.
That is, in total, except for China, the world reduced consumption by approximately 15 exajoules, and China increased it by 124. As a result, consumption did not fall, but, on the contrary, increased sharply.
And this situation will persist until the standard of living among the main economic clusters in the world economy is equalized.
Green energy is expensive and rich countries can afford it, while fossil fuels, especially coal, are cheap and in demand by the poor.
That is, until Asia approaches Europe in terms of living standards (mostly in the form of its key clusters, such as China, India, Indochina), the demand for fossil fuels will only increase, and the "green course" will only act as a "brake" on this growth.
Therefore, it is very dangerous for Ukraine, as a poor country (let's call things by their names), to copy the behavior models of developed countries, especially in the part of the "green course".
And we will still need our coal, as well as our oil, natural gas and even peat. Although there is a risk of losing our coal basins in the east of the country, they still remain in the west.
