The Russian Federation plans to resolve the "Ukrainian issue" by 2026, as delaying the war for 5-10 years will mean the loss of chances to catch up with the US and China. This was stated by a representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Vadim Skibitsky during a roundtable "New contours of European security".
According to him, Russia considers 15 possible scenarios of military conflicts by 2045, and six of them concern Northern Europe. Moscow pays special attention to the Baltic States and Poland, which provides four likely options for the deployment of hostilities. Poland, according to GUR, understands the reality of this threat and is actively preparing for a possible conflict.
Moscow has developed a geopolitical forecast for the period 2026-2035, which determined that the war in Ukraine should end by 2026. The main reason for such urgency is the economic and technological gap with the US and China. The Kremlin is aware that the long war is depleting the Russian economy, and in the case of its continuation for the next 5-10 years of the Russian Federation will lose the opportunity to become an equal geopolitical player.
At the same time, Ukraine plays a key role in new approaches to the organization of the European Security System. The future balance of power in the region depends on the result of the war and possible changes in international policy to restrain Russia.
Recently, several rounds of negotiations between Ukraine, Russia and the United States have taken place, which discussed the issue of temporary ceasefire. Washington declares "significant progress" in these negotiations, but there are no final arrangements.
Earlier, Kyiv agreed to terminate the fighting in the Black Sea and concluded an agreement on the "Energy Armistice" with Russia. In response, the Kremlin demanded a partial removal of sanctions from the event that it remains the subject of discussion.
Thus, Ukraine and its western partners are faced with a choice: either to force Russia to accept the conditions of unprofitable conditions for it, or to allow the Kremlin to impose its own scenario of end of the war.
