Based on the analysis of Anders Pak Nielsen, military analyst and naval captain of the Royal Danish War College, we formulated a number of important conclusions regarding the prospects of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the current war with Russia.
Dynamics of war: offensive and defensive
Military operations are characterized by alternating offensive and defensive phases. Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we have observed a change of initiative between the parties. For the first six months of the war, Russia was on the offensive, then Ukraine launched a counteroffensive that lasted for about a year. However, starting last fall, Russia went on the offensive again, using significant resources. Despite this, the achievements of Russian troops remain limited, which gives reason to believe that their offensive is gradually approaching the point of culmination.
In war, defense allows the parties to accumulate resources and energy, which are then used to attack. This cycle eventually culminates when offensive options are exhausted. It is then that the enemy side has the opportunity to launch a counterattack, taking advantage of the enemy's exhaustion.
Ukraine is currently on the defensive, accumulating forces and resources for a future counteroffensive. By receiving military aid from Western partners and conducting a new wave of mobilization, Ukraine is building a significant force ready to be used at the appropriate moment.
Political and military calculations
One of the key factors that will affect the timing of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is the situation in the political arena, in particular the results of the presidential elections in the USA. If Joe Biden is re-elected, US military support is likely to continue. At the same time, the victory of Donald Trump may lead to changes in the policy regarding military aid to Ukraine. Thus, the Ukrainian leadership should take this uncertainty into account in its strategic plans.
What are the risks?
Ukraine should choose between two approaches: launch a counteroffensive immediately after the culmination of the Russian offensive or remain on the defensive to further accumulate resources. A quick counteroffensive could have political advantages, boosting morale and breaking the narrative of Russian invincibility. At the same time, there is a risk that the training of the brigades may not be completed, and the political situation in the USA may affect the supply of weapons.
Ukraine needs to take into account both strategies, based on the analysis of the situation on the front and political factors. Nielsen believes that the decisive factor in determining the timing of the counteroffensive will be the results of the American elections. Until then, Ukrainian forces will probably continue defensive actions, preparing for possible local counterattacks, so as not to lose opportunities and maintain military activity.
Ultimately, Ukraine's strategy should be flexible and adaptive, ready for changes both on the battlefield and in international politics.
