In the Southern direction, the Russians have recently become noticeably more active. Military analyst Konstantin Mashovets sees this as an attempt by the enemy to return to the positions it occupied in the Zaporizhia region before the start of the 2023 counteroffensive.
1. It is obvious that in the near future the enemy will try to significantly improve its position in the Berdyansk direction
Recently, the advanced units of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division (MRD) from the enemy's 5th Combined Arms Army (CAA) have become significantly more active west of the village of Staromayorske.
Its 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (MR), which had previously made several focused attempts to advance significantly between the villages of Priyutne and Staromayorske in the northern direction, is again trying to attack/storm, but this time it is trying to break through to Staromayorske from the west.
For its part, south of the village, the enemy brought into battle units of the 1461st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops (MTRT), assigned to the 36th ZVA (this is the defense zone of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade/Motorized Rifle Brigade of the same 5th ZVA). Apparently, hoping in cooperation with the 127th MRD to displace our troops from Zavitne Bazhannya and Staromayorske by simultaneous and concentrated pressure from the south and west.
So far, they have not managed to achieve anything significant. But, probably, this is only the beginning of some efforts by the enemy command in this direction (Vostok Front) to improve their tactical position.
This is evidenced by the “emergence” in this direction of units of the 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade, which, apparently, returned from near Bakhmut to the “bosom” of its native 5th ZVA… Now, its 2nd Motorized Rifle Battalion (MRB) is moving to a well-known training ground in Novopetrivka, near Berdyansk.
It is planned that several assault units will be formed from its composition (probably up to 2 assault companies, under the name “STORM”), which will later be put into battle in the lane of the 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade with the task of breaking through either to Staromayorske or to Zavitne Bazhanna.
In addition, in the same direction (Zavitne Bazanna - Staromayorske) at least 3 reconnaissance groups from the 14th separate special forces brigade (SBR) of the enemy, specializing in the use of "Lancet" type loitering munitions and drones, have been recorded.
It is obvious that they did not gather here to “cool off.” Usually, recently, the enemy has been trying to accompany any of its activities (primarily offensive ones) with the massive use of strike UAVs in the tactical zone.
In addition, in the Stepanivka - Chervone direction, the enemy's 127th motorized rifle division has also recently been active with the forces of the advanced units of its 114th motorized rifle regiment, which managed to advance along two landings to the north.
2. In the Tokmat direction,
After the enemy managed to significantly push our advanced units north from the first position of its main defense line between Novoprokopivka and Verbovye, through a series of persistent attacking/assault actions, and also to reach the western outskirts of the village of Robotyne, he was forced to slow down and is currently trying to regroup his attacking tactical groups in order to continue the process of “restoring the position”, which existed BEFORE the start of the Ukrainian offensive in the summer-autumn of last year.
A consolidated tactical group of enemy airborne troops is operating west of Verbovoye (the 247th Airborne Assault Regiment/Airborne Assault Regiment from the 7th Airborne Assault Division/Airborne Assault Division and the 104th Airborne Assault Regiment from the 76th Airborne Assault Division).
In particular, the advanced units of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) in the form of battalions of its 70th and 71st Motorized Rifle Regiments (MRs) are attempting to advance south and west of Robotyne.
In my opinion, in the near future I would expect the enemy's 58th ZVA command to increase its efforts. For example, by attempting to engage units of the 136th mobile brigade northwest of Robotyne, with the aim of bypassing this Ukrainian defense node from the north and cutting the road connecting Robotyne and Novodanylivka.
Whatever it is, but even despite these frantic attacks by the enemy in the Tokmat direction, which began a couple of weeks ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold a certain segment of the first position of the enemy's main defense line in this direction northwest of the village of Verbove, which they reached during their offensive in the summer-autumn of last year, although it is not very wide and significant along the front - 1-1.5 km.
3. Finally, a little about the Dnieper direction.
Honestly, I don't know what Putin's Shoigu "finally cleared" in the area of the village of Krynki, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold part of the remains of this village.
Moreover, the last attempt by several assault groups from the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment (MR) of the enemy's 70th Motorized Rifle Division (MRD) to "finally" push our advanced units from positions in Krynki directly into the Dnieper floodplain ended unsuccessfully for them.
If it were as Shoigu reported..., then General Teplinsky would have no need to keep Krynkiv in the area:
- 810th Separate Marine Brigade (MP formation);
- 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (OMBR);
- 2 airborne assault regiments (ASR) from the 104th ASR;
- 2 motorized rifle regiments (MRR) from the 70th MRD;
- reinforce this entire grouping with at least 2 battalions of the 17th Tank Regiment (TP) of the same 70th MSD;
- and supported by at least 2 divisions of the 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment, also from the 70th Motorized Rifle Division.
In fact, in the section between Kozachy Lagery and Korsunka, almost all of the enemy's motorized rifle division, the main forces of another division (airborne assault), and at least 2 separate brigades are operating.
In this regard, a completely natural question arises - why, if everything has been "cleaned up" there for a long time? Who is this whole horde fighting against, with several platoons of Ukrainian marines who have settled in the floodplains?
Moreover, tactical bridgeheads of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to exist north of the village of Pidstepne and in the direction of the village of Poyma, in Dachny, west of the town of Oleshky, on numbered islands. Will the command of the Dnieper Military District now concentrate such groups against each of them?
