In the Southern direction, the Russians have recently become noticeably more active. Military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets sees this as an attempt by the enemy to return to the positions it occupied in the Zaporizhzhia region before the start of the 2023 counteroffensive.
1. It is obvious that in the near future the enemy will try to significantly improve his position in the Berdyansk direction
Recently, advanced units of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division (MSD) from the 5th Combined Arms Army (ZVA) of the enemy have significantly increased their activity west of the village. Staromayorske.
Its 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (MSP), which had previously made several concentrated attempts to significantly advance between the villages of Priyutne and Staromayorske in the northern direction, is again trying to attack/storm, but this time it is trying to break through to Staromayorske from the west.
For its part, south of the village, the enemy brought into battle units of the 1461st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops (msp TrV), assigned to the 36th ZVA (this is the line of defense of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade\omsbr of the same 5th ZVA). Apparently, hoping in cooperation with the 127th MSD to dislodge our troops from Zavitny Bazhan and Staromayorsky by simultaneous and concentrated pressure from the south and west.
So far, they have not managed to achieve anything significant. But, probably, this is only the beginning of certain efforts of the enemy command in this direction (Vostok "Vostok") to improve its tactical position.
This is evidenced by the “surfacing” of units of the 57th omsbr in this direction, which apparently returned from near Bakhmut to the “bosom” of its native 5th ZVA... Now, its 2nd motorized rifle battalion (msb) is moving to a well-known to me landfill in Novopetrivka, near Berdyansk.
It is planned that several assault units will be formed from its composition (probably up to 2 assault companies, under the status of "STORM"), which will later be put into battle in the lane of the 60th omsbr with the task of breaking through either to Staromayorsk, or in the Covenant Desire.
In addition, at least 3 reconnaissance groups from the enemy's 14th separate special-purpose brigade (SPR) were detected in the same direction (Zavitne Bazhanna - Staromayorske), which specialize in the use of Lancet-type barrage munitions and drones.
It is obvious that they did not concentrate here to "cool off". Usually, during the last time, the enemy tries to accompany any activity (primarily of an offensive nature) with the massive use of attack UAVs of the tactical zone without fail.
In addition, in the direction of Stepanivka - Chervone, the enemy's 127th MSD has also recently been active with the advanced units of its 114th motorized rifle regiment, which managed to advance along two landings to the north.
2. In the Tokmak direction,
after the enemy succeeded in a series of persistent offensive/assault actions to significantly push our advanced units northward from the first position of their main line of defense between Novoprokopivka and Verbov, as well as reach the western outskirts of the village of Robotyn, he was forced to slow down and is currently trying to regroup his attacking tactical groups in order to continue the process of "restoring the position", which existed BEFORE the start of the Ukrainian offensive in the summer-autumn of last year.
A combined tactical group of enemy airborne troops (the 247th Airborne Assault Regiment\dshp from the 7th Airborne Assault Division\dshd and the 104th Airborne Assault Regiment from the 76th dshd) is operating west of Verbovoy.
In particular, advanced units of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army (ZVA) in the form of battalions of its 70th and 71st Motorized Rifle Regiments (msp) are trying to advance south and west of Robotina.
In my opinion, in the near future I would expect a certain increase in efforts from the command of the 58th ZVA of the enemy. For example, by trying to engage units of the 136th omsbr north-west of Robotyny, with the aim of bypassing this node of the defense of the Armed Forces from the north and cutting the road connecting Robotyny and Novodanilivka.
Be that as it may, even despite these frenzied attacks of the enemy in the Tokmak direction, which began a couple of weeks ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold the northwestern village of Verbove is a certain segment of the first position of the enemy's main line of defense in this direction, which they entered during their offensive in the summer-autumn of last year, although it is not very wide and significant along the front - 1-1.5 km.
3. In conclusion, a little about the Dnieper direction.
To be honest, I don't know what Putin's ShoygA "finally cleared" there in the area of the village. Krynyk, but the Armed Forces continue to hold part of the remains of this village.
Moreover, the last attempt of several assault groups from the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment (MSP) of the enemy's 70th Motorized Rifle Division (MSD) to "finally" push our advanced units from the positions in Krynyk directly to the Dnieper floodplain ended unsuccessfully for them.
If it were as Shoigu reported..., then General Teplinsky would not have had any need to keep in the Krynkiv area:
- 810th separate marine infantry brigade (MP model);
- 144th separate motorized rifle brigade (omsbr);
- 2 amphibious assault regiments (dshp) from the 104th dshd;
- 2 motorized rifle regiments (msp) from the 70th MSD;
- to reinforce this whole group with at least the 2nd battalions of the 17th tank regiment (tp) of the same 70th MSD;
- and supported by at least 2 divisions of the 81st self-propelled artillery regiment, also from the 70th MSD.
In fact, one motorized rifle division of the enemy, the main forces of one more division (an amphibious assault) and at least 2 separate brigades are operating in the section between Cossack Camps and Korsunka.
In connection with this, a completely natural question arises - why, if everything was "cleaned up" there a long time ago? With whom is this whole horde fighting, with several platoons of Ukrainian marines, who got stuck in the floes?
Moreover, the tactical bridgeheads of the Armed Forces continue to exist north of the village. Podstepne and in the direction of the village. Floodplain, in Dachy, west of the town of Oleshka, on numbered islands. Is it now that the command of the Dnipro Air Force will concentrate such groups against each of them?
