Still reeling from last year's failed counteroffensive in Ukraine, the Biden administration is crafting a new strategy that will de-emphasize territory recovery and focus instead on helping Ukraine repel new Russian offensives while moving toward the long-term goal of ramping up its military operations.
The new plan is a dramatic change from last year, when the US military and its allies rushed training and advanced equipment to Kyiv in the hope that it could quickly push back Russian forces occupying eastern and southern Ukraine. This attempt failed, mainly due to heavily fortified Russian minefields and forward trenches.
"It's pretty clear that it's going to be difficult for them to try to make the same big push on all fronts that they tried to do last year," a senior administration official said.
The idea now is to position Ukraine to hold its ground on the battlefield for the time being, but "put them on a different trajectory so they're much stronger by the end of 2024... and put them on a more sustainable path," — said the senior official, one of several who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the domestic policy.
The U.S. planning is part of a multifaceted effort by nearly three dozen countries that support Ukraine to pledge long-term security and economic support — both out of necessity, given the disappointing results of last year's counteroffensive, and the belief that a similar effort this year is likely to lead to the same. result, and as a demonstration of steadfast determination to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Each of them is preparing a document outlining their specific commitments for the future up to a decade. Britain unveiled its 10-year deal with Ukraine last week, signed by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi in Kyiv. He outlined contributions to "Maritime Security, Air, Air Defence, Artillery and Armor", as well as fiscal support and access to the financial sector. France is expected to be next, and President Emmanuel Macron will visit Ukraine in the near future.
But the success of the strategy depends almost entirely on the United States, by far the largest donor of money and equipment to Ukraine and the coordinator of multilateral efforts. This spring, the administration hopes to release its own 10-year commitment, which the State Department is now putting together with the White House's blessing — provided President Biden's request for $61 billion in additional funding for Ukraine is approved by a recalcitrant Congress.
The shaky ground on which that assumption currently rests — House Republicans seem to be digging deeper and deeper into rejecting the money — has worried both Western allies and Ukraine itself.
"Certainly, US leadership and involvement in the long term, but also at this very important juncture, is paramount," a senior European official said. "The addition is imperative to continue ... not only on the ground, but as a demonstration of Western resolve ... to let [Putin] know that he will not win."
"We would not have survived without the support of the United States, this is a real fact," Zelensky said in a television interview last week.
Future Ukraine against Trump
According to American officials, the American document will guarantee support for short-term military operations, as well as the construction of a future Ukrainian armed force capable of deterring Russian aggression. It will include specific promises and programs that will help protect, restore and expand Ukraine's industrial and export base, as well as help the country with the political reforms needed to fully integrate into Western institutions.
Not coincidentally, as one U.S. official put it, the long-term pledge — again assuming congressional support — is also expected to provide Ukraine with “future-proof” aid against the possibility of former President Donald Trump being re-elected.
As the White House continues to try to convince lawmakers, a second senior administration official emphasized that the strategy does not mean that the Ukrainians are simply going to build their own defensive trenches "and sit behind them" all year. "There will continue to be exchanges of territory" in small towns and villages of minimal strategic value, "missile launches and drones" from both sides, and Russian "attacks on civilian infrastructure," the official said.
Instead of the large-scale artillery duels that dominated much of the fighting in the second half of 2022 and much of 2023, the West hopes for 2024 that Ukraine will avoid losing more than one-fifth of the country's territory currently occupied by Russia. In addition, Western governments want Kyiv to focus on tactics where its forces have recently had more success — longer-range fires, including French cruise missiles it promises to deploy in the next few months; containment of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to protect naval transit from Ukrainian ports; and binding Russian forces in Crimea using missile strikes and special operations sabotage.
Zelensky insists that Ukraine continues its offensive. The plans for 2024 are "not just about defense," he said in a recent video message. "We want our country to retain the initiative, not the enemy."
But U.S. politicians who have recently met privately with him say Zelensky has doubts about how ambitious he will be next year without clarity on U.S. aid.
"We are asked what our plan is, but we must understand what resources we will have," said Ukrainian MP Roman Kostenko. "Now everything points to the fact that we will have less than last year, when we tried to counter-attack, but it did not work. ... If we have even less, then it is clear what the plan will be. It will be a defense."
"Nobody is ruling offensive actions out of the equation," said Serhiy Rakhmanin, another deputy. “But in general ... it is very difficult to imagine a serious global strategic offensive operation in 2024. Especially if we look at the general state of foreign aid, not only from the United States."
Even those who believe that Ukraine will eventually be able to push back against Russia admit that 2024 will be a meager and dangerous year. "Most likely, there will be no huge territorial gains," Latvian President Edgar Rinkevičs said in an interview. "The only strategy is to get as many as possible into Ukraine to help them, firstly, defend their own cities ... and secondly, to help them just not lose ground."
"We're a bit caught up in time," agreed Kusti Salm, permanent secretary of the Estonian Defense Ministry. "It's just a matter of whether we can get through this valley of death."
"You have to have something to fight against"
Along the front line, the Ukrainian military began training to recreate the Russian echelon defense of trenches and minefields in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region that thwarted last year's counteroffensive.
"Ordinary soldiers are not very interested in [Ukrainian] politics and foreign policy," said a Ukrainian commander in the eastern Donetsk region, who was not authorized to speak publicly. "But when you feel that there is not enough of it, like ammunition, mortars, shells, then it immediately causes excitement. You can fight, but you have to have something to fight against.'
American policymakers say they expect the war to eventually end in talks, but also don't think Putin will be serious about talks this year, in part because he hopes Trump will return to the presidency in November and withdraw support for Kyiv.
Trump, who has long touted a special relationship with Putin, said months ago that if he returned to the White House, he would "resolve this war in one day, 24 hours." In a televised interview last week, Zelensky called the claim "very dangerous" and invited Trump to Kyiv to share any of his plans.
Ukraine's long-term transformation strategy for the future dates back to last summer's G-7 declaration of support, in which Western leaders pledged to create a "resilient" military compatible with the West and strengthen "economic stability and resilience."
Despite this, this policy contains risks, including political ones, if Ukrainians begin to blame their government for stagnation on the front line. Similarly, in Western capitals, officials are clearly aware that their citizens' patience with financing the war in Ukraine is not endless.
Amidst the planning, Washington also seems to be preparing the argument that even if Ukraine is not going to get all of its territory back anytime soon, it needs significant help to be able to defend itself and become an integral part of the West.
"We can see what the future of Ukraine can and should be, regardless of where the lines are drawn," Blinken said earlier this month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "And this is a future where he stands firmly on his feet militarily, economically and democratically."
"There is no silver bullet" for arming Ukraine
In conversations with lawmakers, administration officials stressed that only about half of the $61 billion requested is for the current battlefield, with the rest aimed at helping Ukraine build a secure future without massive Western aid.
According to US officials closely involved in the planning, the US document is being written with four phases in mind: fight, build, rebuild and reform.
The most immediate needs for the "combat" phase are "artillery munitions, some replacement of vehicles" lost in the counteroffensive, "a lot more drones," said Eric Ciaramella, a former CIA intelligence analyst and now senior research fellow in Russia. and the Eurasian Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which consulted with administration officials. "There are many technologies of electronic warfare and combating drones - in which the Russians have achieved an advantage. They need more air defense systems to cover more cities.”
Although Ukraine is still eagerly awaiting the promised delivery of fighter jets and armored vehicles this year, they are "expensive systems with single points of failure," Chiaramella said. "I think that Ukrainians understand that there is no silver bullet after seeing a tank worth a million dollars destroyed by a mine worth 10,000 dollars during a counterattack."
The "build" phase of the strategy focuses on promises for Ukraine's future security forces on land, sea and in the air, so that Ukrainians "can see what they are getting from the world community within 10 years and ... come out of 2024 with a road map to an army that has a high level of deterrence,” the first senior administration official said. At the same time, part of the requested additional money is aimed at developing Ukraine's industrial base for the production of weapons, which, together with the increase of the US and allies, can "at least keep pace with Russian" production.
The plan also includes additional air defenses to create protective "bubbles" around Ukrainian cities outside Kyiv and Odesa and allow key parts of the Ukrainian economy and exports, including steel and agriculture, to recover. Last fall, Biden appointed former Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker as the US representative to lead efforts to restore Ukraine's economy and mobilize public and private investment.
Attracting foreign investment to Ukraine will also require additional efforts to fight corruption, US officials admit. Zelenskyi took certain steps, including firing and in some cases arresting allegedly corrupt military procurement officials and judges; other initiatives were required by the European Union, considering Ukraine's possible membership in the EU.
But as talks and planning for the future continue, not all Ukraine supporters believe now is the right time to focus on sending Ukraine what it needs to confront the Russians as quickly and decisively as possible on the battlefield this year.
"Whatever strategy you use, you need every weapon you can think of," former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said during a visit last week to pressure Republican lawmakers to approve funding for Ukraine.
"You can't win a war by following an incremental step-by-step approach," he said. "You must surprise and defeat your opponent."
