Capacity losses and the threat to energy stability until the winter of 2025

According to our source in the Office of the President, forecasts were announced regarding the state of Ukrainian critical infrastructure and the possibilities of maintaining stability during the winter of 2025. As of March 27, 2024, a loss of 47% of capacity compared to the pre-war period was recorded. Thanks to the suspension of the functioning of the industrial sector, the situation was stabilized. However, the enemy's recent attacks have left hydroelectric power plants and thermal power plants without electricity, limiting the capabilities of the stabilization system.

On the morning of March 22, as a result of a massive missile attack by Russian forces, Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power station, DniproHES, stopped working, losing a critically important 1,000 megawatts of maneuvering capacity for the Ukrainian energy system.

In his speech, Ihor Syrota emphasized that the Dnipro HPP, a key element of the Dnipro cascade of hydroelectric power plants, was significantly damaged by a missile strike, losing 1,000 megawatts of maneuvering power, which is a serious blow to the country's energy system.

The extent of the damage is still being assessed, but work to remove the debris has been hampered by significant damage to the engine room structures. Despite this, the situation at the DniproHPS dam remains stable, with no threat of a breach.

Although the causeway and city crossing suffered damage, the main structure remains intact. The morning rocket attack on March 22 had serious consequences for the operation of the plant, especially for HPP 2, which is now in a critical condition. Efforts are aimed at restoring and minimizing the consequences of this disaster for the Ukrainian energy system.

The authorities and responsible services are actively working on the analysis of damages and the development of an action plan for the restoration of Dnipro HPP. This includes the physical restoration of damaged infrastructure and measures to ensure security in the region.

Given the strategic importance of the Dnipro HPP for the energy stability of Ukraine, the restoration of the plant is a priority task. This is not only important for the country's energy supply, but also for the restoration of economic stability and support of the region's vital activities. However, specialists face complex tasks that require significant resources and time.

The international community has also shown its support by offering help in assessing the damage and rebuilding the damaged infrastructure. This may include financial support and best practices in the restoration of energy facilities.

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