Russia's use of missiles from North Korea in Ukraine: challenges for air defense

The United States has said that North Korea has transferred to Russia a batch of ballistic missiles and launchers that it says have already been used in attacks on Ukraine. This information was confirmed by the representative of the National Security Council of the White House, John Kirby, characterizing the event as a "significant and alarming escalation" on the part of North Korea, which, according to him, is connected with the support of Russia.

John Kirby said that the United States will take this issue to the UN Security Council and introduce additional sanctions against those who facilitate the supply of weapons. While Russia rejects any accusations of arms deals with North Korea.

Just hours after the White House's announcement, North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, called for an increase in his country's launch vehicle production. It should be noted that in September he visited Russia to discuss possible military cooperation.

In a TV interview, Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat noted that Ukraine cannot currently confirm the use of missiles from North Korea, and the investigation of the wreckage is ongoing.

"Sometimes we are waiting for information whether they were hit by S-400 or Iskander M, but we cannot establish this. A rocket flying is like a speck on a radar, it flies, performs ballistics, falls, explodes and flies into small pieces. It is difficult to establish what exactly they were hit with. We definitely do not have data on which missiles were used," he said.

For the first time, the United States has shared detailed details of North Korea's accusations of supplying Russia with weapons, announcing the transfer of ballistic missiles. These missiles pose a serious challenge to Ukrainian air defense due to their complex trajectory, homing and ability to fly long distances (up to 900 km) from stationary and mobile launchers.

The applicant Yuriy Ignat noted that Ukraine can counter these missiles only with the help of modern Western systems, such as PATRIOT and SAMP/T, which are poorly represented. John Kirby of the White House believes that Russia's purchase of these missiles from North Korea violates UN Security Council resolutions, and the US will demand accountability.

In addition, the United States believes that Russia intended to purchase ballistic missiles from Iran, but has not yet done so. Great Britain also condemned Russia's use of ballistic missiles obtained from North Korea in attacks on Ukraine.

A British Foreign Office official said North Korea was already facing tough sanctions and promised to continue working with partners to punish North Korea for supporting Russia in the Ukrainian war.

In his speech, John Kirby also called on the US Congress to immediately approve additional funding for Ukraine, pointing out the need to support the country in providing air defense and other military equipment. Talks on further military aid have stalled in Congress amid disagreements over support from Republicans who emphasize the need to protect the US-Mexico border.

Ukraine has warned that its frontline efforts and financial stability could be at risk if it does not receive additional aid in the near future.

According to analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia is actively making efforts to obtain ballistic missiles from abroad, considering them more effective for hitting targets in Ukraine. Russian troops regularly use short-range ballistic missiles to attack Ukrainian cities located closer to the front line. According to military analysts, these missiles more effectively bypass Ukrainian air defense systems.

Ukrainian air defenses managed to intercept 149 of 166 Russian cruise missiles during intensive attacks in December 2023, but only a few ballistic missiles were intercepted. ISW indicates that Russian forces are reorienting S-300 and S-400 air defense missiles to strike ground targets in Ukraine, as Ukrainian air defense has difficulty countering these non-standard missile attacks.

The effectiveness of Russian ballistic missiles depends in part on the configuration of the anti-aircraft "umbrella" in Ukraine, the bulk of which is still based on outdated Soviet systems unable to withstand ballistics. Only the PATRIOT and SAMP/T systems can effectively shoot down ballistic missiles.

Analysts emphasize that the success of Russian forces in using ballistic missiles in combination with cruise missiles and drones may encourage Russia to actively seek them abroad. It is noted that the Russian defense and industrial base may not be able to produce ballistic missiles on the necessary scale for a sustained strike campaign in Ukraine, which may prompt Russia to supply them from abroad.

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