In some critical items, such as drones that have changed the way war is waged, Ukraine already produces 90 percent of what it needs, Mykhailo Fedorov, the minister of digital transformation, told a conference last month.
Among these items are long-range drones that have struck oil facilities deep in Russia in recent weeks, as well as naval drones that have caused serious damage to Russia's Black Sea Fleet and helped restore sea routes for Ukrainian grain exports. Ukraine also creates its own Soviet-style mortars and artillery shells of 122 and 152 mm caliber.
Ukrainian defense companies are also trying to meet the military's biggest need by creating their own 155mm NATO-standard shells needed for artillery systems supplied by western Ukraine.
There is an extreme shortage of these shells at the front, but the official representative of the state defense enterprise "Ukroboronprom" said that production will begin no earlier than "the second half of this year." The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of sensitive national security issues, did not provide additional details.
But President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that domestic production is key for Ukraine to ensure its defense capability.
"This is a way out," Zelensky told The Associated Press in December, discussing the hope that Ukraine will be able to fully develop its arms industry. According to him, if these aspirations are realized, Russian plans "to destabilize, expand and occupy Ukraine will stop."
Despite the fact that Ukraine has production facilities and certain raw materials, especially steel, the military is now in urgent need of weapons.
"Unfortunately, I can say that without the help of our Western partners, our friends, including from the United States, we will not be able to fully meet the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," said Deputy General Director Maksym Polyvyanyi. "Ukrainian Bronetehnika", the largest private arms manufacturer in the country.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the arms industry in Ukraine actually collapsed. Years of mismanagement and corruption, combined with the fact that much of the industry was concentrated on Russian buyers, meant that Ukraine had to look abroad for everything from bullets to fighter jets.
Ukraine also surrendered its nuclear arsenal in exchange for guarantees, including from Russia, regarding the observance of the country's territorial sovereignty.
Now, after more than two years of full-scale war, Ukraine needs everything from basic assets like bullets to sophisticated weapons like long-range missile systems, fighter jets and bombers.
A weapon can be seen on the horizon. Ukrainian Strategic Industry Minister Oleksandr Kamyshyn said last month that Ukraine had deployed a locally made missile with a range of more than 400 miles. He did not provide details. Air defense systems with precision missiles similar to the US-Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Earth Missile System (NASAMS) are also being developed, officials said.
But the high-tech systems that Ukraine needs to repel the Russian invaders are still very far from production in Ukraine. "To master such a production, to build such a production, it takes decades," said Polyvyanyi, who is also the director of the National Association of the Defense Industrial Complex of Ukraine, which includes more than 50 private contractors.
Ukrainian forces have lost ground in the east in recent weeks as they struggle with dwindling supplies of shells, bullets and even soldiers. And soon the situation may worsen significantly. US intelligence predicted that Ukraine may run out of anti-aircraft missiles by the end of the month.
As the White House works to get $60 billion in aid through Congress, there are glimmers of hope for Ukraine.
Last week, the European Union approved a $5 billion military package, and the Biden administration announced it would send $300 million in aid, made possible by "unexpected cost savings" in Pentagon contracts for Ukraine. And the Czech initiative hopes to start sending about 800,000 shells in the coming weeks.
However, all this still does not meet the needs of the country.
Ukrainian officials say they cannot release exact figures for their production due to security concerns. But a list of constraints — from the lack of adequate financing to finding a sufficient amount of gunpowder — prevents Ukrainian industry from ramping up production.
"Our state budget is not enough," said Oleksandr Zavitnevich, chairman of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.
Ukraine's ability to finance domestic arms production is limited by the investment capital it can provide, as Western financial support is usually directed towards non-military spending. Ukraine will spend about $5 billion this year on domestic weapons production, officials say, but everyone agrees that it is not enough.
"The main defense resource is money," Zavitnevich said.
Raising taxes is politically risky, if not economically impractical, given that the country's economy is already in limbo, with a significant portion of the working population living abroad, fighting at war, or unemployed.
Ukrainian officials are advocating the use of some of the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth about $300 billion, frozen by the West. On Friday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said for the first time that he supports this idea.
But even if the money is found, Ukraine must face the global shortage of explosive chemicals.
Bottlenecks in the supply chain and a surge in international demand, driven in part by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, have depleted supplies of gunpowder and rocket fuel. In Ukraine, this led to periodic shutdowns of production, Polyvyanyi from "Ukrainian armored vehicles" noted.
"We will reach the stage when we will produce as much ammunition as we find gunpowder," said the representative of Ukroboronprom.
The Ukrainian government's procurement methods also hamper production, defense contractors say, because many ministries sign contracts and there is no unified system.
"It's a stupid question every time we get from different ministries: 'How much can you produce this month?'" said Artem Vyunnyk, head of Athlon Avia, which makes Furia, Ukraine's main reconnaissance drone for artillery detection. "They need to understand that manufacturing doesn't work like that."
Before the war, Athlon produced 100 drones a year, Viyunnyk said. Now it is 150 per month. But the contracts require months of planning for the purchase of raw materials.
Viyunnyk said he is giving officials the same answer — he can't increase production right away, but he can build more next year with preparation. "I can do it, but tell me about it right now," he said.
Ukrainian officials say they are streamlining the process under the guidance of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Armed Forces.
Ukraine also cooperates with Western companies, such as German Rheinmetall, British BAE Systems and Turkish Baykar. Last month, Rheinmetall agreed on a joint venture to produce 155mm shells and gunpowder.
Ultimately, Zelensky hopes to get cheap loans and licenses to manufacture and repair American weapons.
As Ukraine ramps up arms production, Russia has begun attacking weapons factories. Many missiles were intercepted, but several reportedly found their target.
Ukraine does not disclose when the factory was hit. A recent trip by Washington Post journalists to the Ukrainian Armor mortar factory was twice interrupted by aircraft signals. However, no Russian missiles or explosive drones were spotted nearby.
"Ukrainian Armor" and other firms have moved part of their production outside Ukraine, Polyvyanyi said.
As a protective measure, companies split production stages or duplicate them and place them in different locations. Some critical processes take place underground. All this reduces the output.
Vyunnyk of Athlon Avia said that he has split up his operations in Kyiv and moved part of them to Lviv in western Ukraine. After the explosive scare in Lviv, he divided production there as well. "It reduces our efficiency," he said. "But we have to do it, because if we don't, we could be in big trouble."
