In the difficult conditions of the modern world, Ukraine is faced with challenges that require a review of traditional approaches to international politics and security. Political scientist Gennadiy Druzenko emphasizes that attempts to appeal to international law and the UN charter do not bring the desired results, because the rules that once ensured stability have undergone significant changes today.
UKRAINE: BETWEEN JUPITER AND BULL
The era of rules is coming to an end. The rules are always based either on the balance of power of the powerful players, or on the dominance of someone alone who sets these rules and ensures their implementation. The first model of maintaining the world legal order (fairly unfair, but real) sank into oblivion with the end of the Cold War. The second is ending before our eyes due to the rise of autocracies led by China and the exhaustion of the United States to single-handedly carry the burden of world leadership.
The tragedy of Ukraine is that it appeals to the rules (international law, UN charter, etc.), while the rules no longer work. As long as there was one Jupiter and hundreds of bulls in the world, the main rule was that the bulls had to act according to the rules and only Jupiter had the right to make exceptions to the rules (like the unauthorized UNSC bombing of Serbia in 1999 or the invasion of Iraq in 2003). The famous Latin proverb Quod licet Iovi, non licet bovi worked perfectly until some bulls felt themselves to be Jupiters, and the real Jupiter, tired of endless wars and internal troubles, was unable (or unwilling) to put them in their place.
And if the real Jupiter broke the rules when they didn't seem too fair to him, then the bulls who imagined themselves to be Jupiters break the rules primarily to prove that they are no longer bulls - henceforth Jupiter will have to negotiate with them. If someone thinks that for Putin, the destruction of Ukraine is a goal in itself, I will beg to differ. For the Kremlin ghoul, the subjugation of Ukraine is a means of proving to the West (and primarily the USA) that Russia will no longer play by the rules — it will establish them at the negotiating table, as was the case in Yalta almost 80 years ago, or as fait accompl, by the right of the strong.
And it is not a fact that the West will not agree to the Russian proposal later. At least so far, he is not ready either to fight on the side of Ukraine or to ensure a decisive turning point in the war in favor of Ukraine. He can't or doesn't want to, I don't know for sure. Most likely, the second. And if he doesn't want to, why shouldn't he admit for one moment, which is not good for Ukraine, that it is necessary to negotiate a new world order with Russia, because it destroyed the old one, and the West was unable to punish it for this. By the way, the idea of returning the world to a "concert of great powers" that should replace American hegemony does not belong to Putin - its most vivid apologist was the late Henry Kissinger.
Until a new balance of power is established in the world, an appeal to rules is a weak argument. If these rules worked, Russia would never have attacked Ukraine. The Kurds would have their own state or the Kosovars would not have their own. Abkhazia and South Ossetia would be part of Georgia. The USA would never have invaded Iraq (at least without a UN Security Council resolution). And Turkey, a member of NATO, would not purchase Russian weapons and would not apply to join the BRICS.
What can we oppose to this world that is chaotic before our eyes? Only one's own subjectivity and one's own power. But for this we need a completely different model of Ukrainian statehood: efficient, fair, capable. In 2022 — contrary to all forecasts — Ukrainians proved to the world that they want to live in their own state. Now it remains to agree what this state should be. So that the ship "Ukraine" does not sink in a stormy day, as long as the world is in a zone of turbulence, the states are sorting out who is Jupiter and who is a bull, and the "concert of great nations" is currently more like a cacophony than a polyphony.
The key to Ukraine's survival is not in NATO or the EU (we may not live to join these associations), it lies in the radical reformation of Ukrainian statehood. If we have already demonstrated an indomitable will to live, then we should take the next step and admit that will alone is not enough — we need an effective mechanism for self-organization, survival and development of the nation called "the state".
Without a radical reform of Ukrainian statehood, we have every chance to perish in this world of Jupiters and bulls. Or become an eternal pasture for them...
