Experts do not expect any drastic changes in the dollar exchange rate until the end of August, citing the absence of significant negative news for Ukraine and the end of the holiday season. This forecast is due to the stable situation on the foreign exchange market, which is maintained thanks to the actions of the National Bank and the absence of significant economic shocks.
Andriy Zablovsky, head of the Secretariat of the Council of Entrepreneurs under the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, in a comment to TSN noted that significant fluctuations in the exchange rate are not expected until early September. According to him, the regulator will not allow significant jumps in the exchange rate to occur due to control of supply and demand. Zablovsky also added that this week the hryvnia may even strengthen, which is associated with increased demand at the end of the month, when enterprises are actively paying taxes and preparing to pay salaries. This increases the supply of currency on the interbank market, which, in turn, leads to a depreciation of the dollar and euro.
Oleg Pendzin, a member of the Economic Discussion Club, emphasized that the beginning of the school year may also temporarily lower the dollar exchange rate. According to him, parents of schoolchildren and students will actively exchange currency to purchase necessary goods for school, which will also contribute to a decrease in the exchange rate.
Taras Lesovy, head of the treasury department at Globus Bank, believes that the end of the summer on the foreign exchange market will pass without any significant fluctuations in the exchange rate. He predicts that the corridor of permissible currency fluctuations will remain at the level of 41-41.7 UAH/USD on the interbank market and 41-42 UAH/USD on the cash market.
Analysts at the investment company ICU also updated their forecast for the dollar exchange rate by the end of the year, raising it from 42.3 UAH/dollar to 42.6 UAH/dollar. However, these changes are expected in the longer term, and for now the market remains stable.
In general, experts agree that August will end without sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate, and a slight strengthening of the hryvnia is quite possible. However, the situation may change with the beginning of autumn, when economic processes become more active after the end of the holidays and the beginning of the new school year.
