The situation surrounding possible negotiations between the US, Russia and Ukraine remains dynamic and unpredictable. After initial skepticism and even harsh statements by Donald Trump, in particular about the introduction of tariffs on India, the diplomatic process has unexpectedly intensified. According to information from various sources, multilateral contacts have been ongoing in recent weeks, and the positions of the parties are changing almost in real time.
Under the current scenario, a meeting between the leaders of the US and Russia will only take place if there is a breakthrough in the negotiations. The importance of the format itself for each participant is different: for Putin, a public meeting has much greater weight than for Trump.
Four basic US propositions
According to available information, Washington, while coordinating its position with European partners, is considering at least four key points of a potential agreement:
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Cessation of hostilities approximately along the front line with de facto recognition of the occupied territories as Russian. The details of the legal formula are not yet known. One possible option is a scenario similar to the situation with the occupation of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia by the USSR, when the West did not formally recognize the annexation, but in fact accepted the status quo.
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Ukraine's refusal to join NATO. The issue of neutral status has not yet been resolved, but Russia insists on its consolidation.
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Early presidential elections immediately after the agreement is signed. Previous rumors about a possible ban on the participation of incumbent President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have not yet been confirmed.
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Lifting sanctions on Russia. The format and sequence of easing sanctions pressure remain uncertain. Various models are being discussed, including Kirill Dmitriev's proposal for access of Russian goods to the European market through "joint trading houses" under the American flag.
The Russian side is also expected to insist on certain provisions related to language policy and the status of the church in Ukraine. The format of these demands is not yet clear.
The process can break down at any stage, both due to differences in conditions and external political factors. Experts describe the current state of affairs as a “negotiating seesaw” — with constant oscillations between progress and new impasses.
