Over the past two years, the world has changed unpredictably, and these changes can be compared to Ukraine's representation at the Munich Conference, the world's main security forum.
Two years ago, at this very event, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke in a suit, calling on world leaders to provide his country with security guarantees or at least a European perspective. At the time, tens of thousands of Russian troops were stationed on the Ukrainian border.
Many considered his words nonsense, but history showed that he was foresightful: just five days after the conference, he was met with a full-scale Russian invasion.
Last year, Zelensky opened the same conference via video link, unshaven and in a sweatshirt, which once again emphasizes the dynamics of change in the world and in Ukraine.
The panel on which Volodymyr Zelensky's speech was broadcast was called "David on the Dnieper", in this name quite symbolically reflected the biblical plot about the struggle between the fragile David and the mighty Goliath. On the sidelines of the conference, there was talk of Russia's strategic defeat. Zelensky expressed hope that by the next Munich the war could be over and he would speak at the conference live from the podium.
This year, Volodymyr Zelenskyy did indeed speak from the podium in Munich, but there is no end in sight to the war, and a slight unshaven face and a sweatshirt have become the usual dress code for the Ukrainian leader.
The panel with his participation was called much less ambitiously — “Ukraine in the World” — and the general mood of the speakers was rather alarming.
If last year Ukraine was the center of almost all discussions in Munich, now it was clear that the war unleashed by Russia is, of course, a big problem, but not the only one.
On the opening day of the Munich Conference, news of Alexei Navalny's death emerged. Official Moscow was not invited to the conference, but the news itself became a telling statement from the Kremlin on Russia's place in the modern world.
One of the main topics of the Munich Conference was the situation in the Middle East. The backdrop for the discussions was the prospect of Donald Trump coming to power in the United States: his recent statements on the topic of international security have worried many in Europe, which is slowly launching its defense capabilities.
Returning to Ukraine, the Kyiv guests of Munich and their Western partners emphasized the need for speed of action. The new leitmotif of the conference was the words of Volodymyr Zelensky about the need to make maximum efforts to support Ukraine, namely, to do everything possible, and immediately.
The reaction of Western politicians to these words was diverse. There was not even a hint of peace talks, because, according to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, there are no prerequisites for such talks between Kyiv and Moscow at the moment. The mention of the possibility of negotiations with Vladimir Putin's regime caused a stir, especially in the context of the latest news from Russia.
On aid to Ukraine, positions were mixed. For example, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called on European leaders to send aid in the coming days and weeks, stressing the need for ammunition and air defense systems. US Republican Senator John Ricketts, on the other hand, expressed the opinion that the southern border issue should be dealt with before providing assistance, which takes time.
The question is that this time time may be a luxury: during the conference it became known that Ukrainian troops had left Avdiivka, and one of the main reasons for this was the lack of Western weapons and ammunition in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The US administration, which is the main supplier of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, stopped providing any military assistance to Kyiv at the end of December last year.
“Unfortunately, the situation where Ukraine finds itself in artificial shortages of weapons, including artillery and long-range systems, allows Putin to adapt to the existing level of military conflict,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at the conference. “This is a tangible weakening of democracy, which over time may level the successes achieved.”.
The delay in providing aid to Ukraine led to serious discussions at the Munich Conference about the prospects for the situation if Russia wins the current war – discussions that were impossible last year.
“We, in Western Europe, must convince people and elites that containing Putin after he conquers Ukraine will be much more expensive than helping Ukraine now. Putin will do to Ukraine what he did to Donbas: recruit Ukrainians into his army to attack us,” said Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.
Sikorsky and American historian Timothy Snyder, speaking on the same panel, drew an ominous parallel between the current war in Ukraine and the atmosphere in Europe in 1938-39, when the international community also watched “with deep concern” the events that eventually led to the outbreak of World War II.
“This is a very strange war in which only one nation is fighting… This is, in a sense, a world war, but it is a world war in which only one country is resisting… Poland held back the Wehrmacht for quite a long time, but the rest of the countries entered the war in weeks, not years. So far. I don’t think we appreciate enough what they are doing for us,” Snyder added. On another panel, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg argued that no country in the Western world is in immediate military danger. “The world has become more dangerous, but NATO has become stronger,” he said.
However, is it surprising that a politician leading the most powerful military alliance in history and a historian specializing in Eastern European history look at the same events but see different trends?
In short, participants in the Ukrainian discussions in Munich noted, the third year of the Great War was a very difficult period for Ukraine.
The situation on the front line remains difficult: there is no talk of a new large-scale offensive yet, but 2024 looks like a period of defense. Russia continues to exert pressure along the entire front line, wanting to demonstrate certain results on the battlefield, especially before the March vote for a new presidential term for Vladimir Putin. The Ukrainian authorities are faced with a domestic political challenge in the form of the need for mass mobilization and a reduction in the mobilization age. The volume of Western military aid, on which Ukraine largely depends, is constantly decreasing, and an additional factor is the presidential election in the United States.
The possibility of easing the financial situation for Kyiv may arise through the use of Russian assets frozen in the West to restore the Ukrainian economy. However, there is no political solution on this issue yet. Even Volodymyr Zelensky did not mention these funds and their possible transfer to Kyiv in his speech. Another participant in the lunch, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo, refused to comment on the possible confiscation of Russian assets, stating that this decision should be made collectively by Brussels after consultations with the G7.
“2022 was the time when everyone underestimated Ukraine, 2023 was the time when everyone underestimated our enemy. 2024 should be the moment of truth,” said Victor Pinchuk, opening the “Ukrainian Lunch” at the conference. However, American general and former CIA director David Petraeus, seeing Ukraine’s prospects, was less optimistic: “When I commanded the operation in Iraq, I was often asked whether I was an optimist or a pessimist. I answered: neither. I am a realist, and the reality is that everything is difficult all the time. But difficult does not mean hopeless.”.
