Is a new offensive on Kharkiv possible?

Western and Russian media outlets are reporting that the Kremlin is planning to capture Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-most populous city. At the start of the full-scale invasion, Russian troops had already attempted to do so, but suffered a painful defeat.

Talk of a renewed offensive on Kharkiv is also fueled by ambiguous statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin about the creation of a “sanitary zone” along the Ukrainian-Russian border. According to the Kremlin leader, this should protect Belgorod and the region from shelling from Ukraine and raids by Russian volunteer groups supported by the Ukrainian authorities.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, was even forced to comment on a possible Russian offensive on Kharkiv.

The closest Ukrainian city to the Belgorod region is Kharkiv, only about 30 km from the border.

“I am not ready to talk now about what and how we should annex. I do not exclude that at some point we will be forced to create a certain sanitary zone in the current territories subordinate to the Kyiv regime,” Putin said on March 18, answering the question of whether “the Kharkiv region is planned to join the Russian Federation.”.

But does Russia have enough forces and resources for such a large-scale operation?

How it was 2 years ago

Launching their attack on Ukraine on the morning of February 24, 2022, Russian troops attacked in several directions at once. One of them was Kharkiv.

The main striking forces here were Russian special forces and intelligence units. Ukrainian military analysts Mykhailo Zhyrokhov and Andriy Kharuk, in their book “Battle Chronicle of 2022,” point out that the battle for Kharkiv had a number of features compared to other cities.

In particular, it was here that the Russians very actively used heavy artillery, for example, the Smerch multiple launch rocket system.

“In other areas, the use of artillery was quite limited – the Russians tried to capture cities and other key points on the move, through the actions of raid groups,” the authors of the book note.

Russian troops attempted to attack the city head-on, advancing from the east across the Kharkiv ring road. The defenders repelled all attacks, and on February 27, they completely destroyed a Russian special forces group that attempted to break through to the city center.

After that, the Russians tried to surround the city from the south and north. In the south, they managed to take control of the city of Chuguiv for several days, but from the northern flank, they immediately lost the battle for the village of Dergachi and rolled back beyond the borders of the Kharkiv district.

In six months, the Ukrainian Defense Forces will conduct a brilliant offensive operation and liberate almost the entire Kharkiv region, driving Russian troops beyond the state border.

The attempt to capture Kharkiv failed, not least due to the small number of Russian troops (approximately 16 battalion-tactical groups, i.e. 11-13 thousand fighters), chaotic planning of offensive operations, and strong resistance from the Defense Forces and the local population.

However, after the retreat, Russia not only did not stop regular missile attacks on the Ukrainian city, but also significantly intensified them over the past month.

According to city mayor Igor Terekhov, almost all critical energy infrastructure in Kharkiv has been destroyed, even private ones.

Preparing a new offensive?

Western media outlets began reporting at the beginning of the year that Russia was likely preparing a powerful offensive in the Kharkiv direction. However, the Ukrainian authorities and military command denied these fears, noting that there had been no signs of the creation of a powerful strike group to attack the city directly.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine emphasized that since the end of autumn and almost the entire winter, Russia has been trying to break through Ukrainian defenses near Kupyansk, which is 100 km east of Kharkiv. However, the Russians have never succeeded, so there is no point in talking about a threat from this direction yet. Especially since in recent days, Russian attacks on this section of the front have almost stopped.

In the second half of March, after Putin was re-elected as President of the Russian Federation, talk of preparing an invasion of Kharkiv became relevant again. In particular, the “liberal” Russian publications Meduza and Verstka wrote about this.

The first, citing sources in the Russian government, stated that Vladimir Putin, probably after the elections, set the task of taking Kharkiv and then gradually winding down the “special military operation” - this is how Russia officially calls the war with Ukraine.

“Symbolically, this is also a victory. A city with a population of one million, with a large Russian-speaking population,” one of the interlocutors told the media.

Another publication, Verstka, reported that the Kremlin expects to mobilize 300,000 soldiers into the army in the near future specifically for the operation to capture Kharkiv.

Allegedly, according to the Russian authorities' plan, the mobilized ones will mostly be sent to cover the border in the Belgorod region, and the experienced fighters who will be released after that will be involved in the "Kharkiv operation.".

According to the publication, citing informed sources, the Kremlin plans not to storm the Ukrainian city directly, but to surround it.

As of April 1, the Russian authorities had not announced a new wave of mobilization, which would be necessary to create such a powerful strike force. But on March 30, President Putin signed a decree to call up 150,000 Russians for military service. This is the largest number in the last 8 years.

No new troops

It should be noted that the Ukrainian authorities also declare that Russia is preparing a “new powerful offensive.” However, they do not indicate in which direction the enemy plans to carry it out.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted in an interview with CBS that Ukraine is preparing additional reserves to repel a Russian counteroffensive that will begin in a few months.

“We are sharing information with our partners and saying that Russia will prepare counter-offensive actions, it could be the end of May or June,” he said.

According to the Commander of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Pavlyuk, Russia is already creating a group of 100,000 soldiers, who may be used in this new offensive.

"There is a possibility that by the beginning of summer they may have certain forces to conduct relevant offensive operations in one of the directions," he said, without specifying which direction he was referring to.

Military analyst of the Information Resistance group Konstantin Mashovets draws attention to the fact that at the beginning of the operation to encircle Kharkiv, Russian troops will need to reach the line of Kotelv (a city at the intersection of Poltava, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions) - Valka (a district center 40 km west of Kharkiv).

But on this path stand two “powerful nodes of Ukrainian defense” – the towns of Okhtyrka and Bogodukhov.

Konstantin Mashovets estimates that just to carry out such a complex operation, Russia must deploy more than 1-2 combined arms armies, that is, approximately over 200 thousand fighters.

Another problem for the Kremlin is the southern flank of this offensive. Here, further movement towards the regional center is impossible as long as Ukrainian troops reliably hold a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Oskil River near Kupyansk. Only after a breakthrough in this area could the Russian army move further towards Chuguev and Pervomaysk to capture Kharkiv from the southern front.

Accordingly, according to Mashovets, Russia's conduct of a large-scale offensive operation on Kharkiv this summer is unlikely, primarily due to the current lack of the necessary number of trained troops, ammunition, and logistical resources.

Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko believes that to attack Kharkiv, Russia will need to gather at least 500,000 fighters plus a reserve of 100-150,000.

However, this is actually the size of the entire group of Russian troops currently in Ukraine. Late last year, Putin said that 617,000 Russian troops were already in the “combat zone.”.

Accordingly, it is virtually impossible to create, prepare, and provide a group of similar size in a short time.

For example, in the fall of 2022, when “partial mobilization” was announced, Russia was able to recruit about 300,000 new fighters in a month, and a couple more months were spent on their training, but even after that, when they were transferred to the combat zone, all analysts pointed to the low quality of the Russian “mobiks” for a long time.

“Russia does not have the ability to provide such a group (of 500 thousand people) in a short time, and this is a very long and not imperceptible process, to which there will be an appropriate reaction,” Kovalenko summarizes.

The surprise factor could help in implementing the Kremlin's plans.

In particular, it was he who helped the Russian group of 15 BTGs (approximately 11-12 thousand fighters) reach the western outskirts of Kyiv on February 24, 2022. But now the Russian authorities will not be able to count on him - the Ukrainian army has significantly strengthened the border in the Kharkiv region, preparing several lines of fortifications.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky, however, emphasizes that one should not ignore information about the enemy's preparation for offensive actions in the Kharkiv region. Therefore, the Ukrainian command is taking all measures to "adequately respond to such a possibility.".

“If the Russians go there again, Kharkiv will become a fatal city for them,” the commander believes.