Martial law and general mobilization of men aged 25 to 60 are ongoing in Ukraine. In addition to mandatory conscription, citizens can voluntarily sign a contract with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Recently, there has also been an initiative called "Contract 60+", which allows older men who were previously exempt from mobilization to join the service.
Amid the protracted war, many Ukrainians are concerned about the question: when mobilization and martial law might end. For an entertaining experiment, journalists turned to artificial intelligence with a request to predict possible scenarios for the development of events.
According to ChatGPT (GPT-5 model), the cancellation of mobilization directly depends on the cessation or significant reduction in the intensity of hostilities. Key factors include the stability of the front line, the volume of international military assistance, the economic stability of the state, and the readiness of the parties to make real agreements.
The AI points to three conditions under which martial law can be lifted:
a stable ceasefire;
freezing of the conflict with international security guarantees;
and the end of the active phase of the war.
As of early 2026, the model believes that none of these conditions have been fully met. The war, according to the algorithm, has the hallmarks of a protracted confrontation with no strategic advantage for either side.
ChatGPT believes that the abolition of mobilization in 2026 is unlikely. The most realistic scenario, according to the AI, is a gradual easing of mobilization measures in 2027, provided that the front stabilizes and real international guarantees appear. A complete abolition is possible only after limiting the scale of conscription and transitioning to a different model of army recruitment.
At the same time, the model also allows for a harsher scenario - maintaining martial law until 2028 and longer if the war remains in the phase of attrition.
Another AI system, Claude, refrained from making precise predictions, noting that it could not predict the future. However, analyzing the current political situation, it estimated the probability of the war ending by the summer of 2026 at 20–30%.
Among the possible scenarios, Claude mentions the conclusion of a peace agreement. In this case, provided that agreements and security guarantees are reached, martial law could be lifted 3–6 months after the agreement is signed. Mobilization would be phased out gradually, while maintaining regular army staffing.
At the same time, the material is exclusively for entertainment purposes. Artificial intelligence is capable of analyzing open data and modeling scenarios, but its assessments are not official forecasts or the basis for decision-making.
