Donald Trump may win the presidential election in November 2024. The possible consequences for Ukraine and international politics are analyzed by political commentator Roman Shrik on Telegram.
Although it is not certain that Trump has a clear plan, his loyalty to autocrats and critical attitude towards aid to Ukraine among Trumpist congressmen suggest that further events may develop according to a certain scenario. It is likely that Trump will announce the termination of aid to Ukraine and promise Putin not to pay attention to the occupation of Ukrainian territories. According to the political observer, thus Ukraine will be offered a “stick”, and Putin - a “carrot”.
Three possible scenarios
Shrike considers three possible scenarios:
1. Putin refuses
If Putin does not agree to Trump's offer, it could provoke the former president to change course and continue supplying weapons and other support to Ukraine. While this development seems unlikely, it is not out of the question.
2. Putin agrees, but Ukraine doesn’t
In this case, the war will continue, but without US support, it will be extremely difficult for Ukraine to conduct hostilities. This creates a situation where the country will again be faced with a choice: continue the fight in a bloodless state or enter into negotiations.
3. Both parties agree
If Putin and the Ukrainian authorities agree to Trump’s terms, it could lead to a humiliating peace, up to and including the refusal to join NATO. Such a decision would seriously affect the morale of Ukrainian society, causing depression and internal instability.
Shrike notes that even if the election result is not favorable for Ukraine, the EU, European countries, as well as the budgets of the G7 ($50 billion) and NATO countries ($40 billion) will continue to provide assistance. Even if the American part is removed from the NATO budget, the amount will remain significant.
He also notes that Trump, being a real "dealer," could reduce everything to the fact that the United States will not provide direct assistance, but will allow the sale of American weapons for money. This means that other countries and funds will be able to buy weapons for Ukraine, like Germany, which recently bought three "Haymars".
Shrike concludes that if Trump wins, Ukraine will not have much territory left.
“In general, with a significant probability, in the event of Trump’s victory, we will only have control over those territories that we can recapture by the beginning of 2025. Or even less if the war continues without US support.”
