Ukraine is once again talking about the need for immediate talks with Russia, which have already become a topic of discussion after China’s increased peacemaking initiatives and Turkey’s new offer to act as a platform for a peace summit. Pope Francis has joined the conversation, effectively suggesting that Ukraine capitulate “until the situation worsens.” What do such statements and diplomatic initiatives mean, and how should Ukraine and its allies respond to them?
Mykola Melnyk, a senior lieutenant, a knight of the Order of Bohdan Khmelnytsky and a former company commander of the 47th Brigade, is an expert with the Leviathan Analytical Group. He believes that such statements on the topic of negotiations by China, Turkey and the Vatican are not accidental. “This indicates that the Russians are revealing their cards through such intermediaries, trying to force Ukraine to negotiate,” Melnyk believes. He adds that the Russians probably realize that military successes similar to those at Avdiivka have become impossible, and the strategy of continuing the war could be suicidal for Russia.
Melnyk believes that this could be positive news for Ukraine, as the country can focus on building defenses and sit out the defense. “Such a war is beneficial to us in the long term,” the expert believes. However, he notes that for successful defense, Ukraine needs to solve problems with personnel and weapons.
Regarding the reaction of Ukraine and its allies, Melnyk is confident that Ukraine will not negotiate on Russian terms, and Russia will change its approaches to war and diplomacy. “We will see which of us will be more effective in late spring or early summer of this year,” Melnyk states.
Ihor Reiterovich, head of political and legal programs at the Ukrainian Center for Social Development, sees the intensification of talks about negotiations as a normal phenomenon, related to both changes on the front and political events. He notes that Ukraine must continue to implement its peace plan and attract international support for it.
“We should calmly treat such statements and proposals. They were, are and will be until the end of the war,” Reuterovych emphasizes. “Ukraine’s main task is to implement its peace plan and involve as many countries as possible in it, using international law.”.
