After another wave of "insider" reports that the US may withdraw from the negotiations if Ukraine does not agree to concessions regarding Donbas, a simple question arises: what, exactly, are we losing?
Frankly speaking, during this entire year of the negotiation process, there has been no outward sign that it is bringing us any closer to ending the war or at least to a ceasefire. The only tangible plus is the prisoner exchanges. But they have happened before, and will continue through the same intermediaries, in particular the Arab countries, whose role is only growing.
Everything else is a regular cycle of pressure from the US. Every few weeks a new topic, a new demand, a new “red line” appears. And what is interesting is that these demands are strangely synchronized with the Russian position.
Now we are being hinted at again: either you agree, or we are out of the game.
Okay. What does this mean in practice?
The first thing that is traditionally feared is intelligence. Yes, this is a really sensitive topic. Its absence can affect our capabilities. But let's be honest: we have already gone through periods when the volume or quality of intelligence has declined. This is a problem, but not a catastrophe.
Moreover, some of this information is beneficial to the United States itself — for example, for attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which weakens the Russian Federation as a global player.
The second is weapons. But here's something even more interesting.
This is not about “aid,” it’s about selling. Contracts worth billions of dollars that private American manufacturers are getting. The US military-industrial complex is one of the key donors to the Republican Party. Good luck explaining to them why these contracts need to be cut off before the election.
Moreover, Democrats can easily hijack this topic and include expanding defense orders for Ukraine in their political program. And it will not only be about geopolitics, but also about money, jobs, and donor budgets.
That is, even here it is difficult to see real levers of pressure.
In fact, if we put aside emotions, the US currently has no strong “trump cards” to force Ukraine to accept unfavorable conditions. Except for scenarios that go far beyond politics — sanctions against Ukraine itself, direct military action, or attempts to destabilize the government. But this is a completely different reality.
Therefore, all these statements about "withdrawing from the negotiations" look more like an element of informational pressure than a real strategy.
And the main question here is not whether the US will withdraw from the negotiations.
And whether these negotiations make any sense in their current form.
previously reported that negotiations between Ukraine and representatives of Donald Trump's team are ongoing, and the parties are discussing possible options for a peaceful resolution of the war. At the same time, according to Ukrainian Pravda, the American side is considering withdrawing from the negotiation process if Ukraine does not agree to withdraw troops from the Donetsk region.
