Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's statement on the return of Crimea to Ukraine has caused a significant resonance in international circles. This came as a surprise to many, given Turkey's traditionally difficult relations with Ukraine and Russia. However, analyst Yuriy Bogdanov believes that Erdogan's position is not sensational, but is part of the usual multi-vector nature of Turkish foreign policy, which is based on strategic interests.
There, the Sultan declared that Crimea should be returned to Ukraine. Which once again reminds us how much Turkey in general, and Erdogan as its leader in particular, is trying to play on all chessboards at the same time. Which annoys just about everyone except himself and his like-minded people.
So. Why does Erdogan simultaneously want to join BRICS and support the return of Crimea?
The first is the Turkic world itself. Erdogan regularly emphasizes the priority of protecting the Crimean Tatars, who have Turkic roots. Turkey has long supported this community and opposed violations of their rights in the occupied territory.
For roughly the same reason, Turkey has a complicated dynamic in its relations with China. Because of the Uyghurs. And the factor of influence on Turkic communities and peoples in other countries is seen as a tool for influencing the policies of these countries, even if they are giants like China and Russia.
The second is the factor of territorial integrity. Turkey, like a bunch of other countries that have unresolved territorial disputes or separatist movements, will always support the legitimate territorial integrity of other countries. The only exception to this rule was the independence of Kosovo and Northern Cyprus, but this is primarily a religious factor.
Third, the Black Sea and regional policy factor. It is strategically in Turkey’s interests to maintain an adequate balance and security in the Black Sea. Russia’s control over Crimea creates an imbalance in favor of the latter and poses challenges for Ankara, which seeks to strengthen its influence in the Black Sea, ensure peaceful trade in the region, and not create threats to its strategic straits in the Sea of Marmara. Therefore, Ukrainian Crimea is a much more attractive scenario.
Erdogan is trying to maintain a balance in relations with Russia and Ukraine, which is important for his regional policy. Despite strategic projects with Moscow in energy and several other sectors, Turkey continues to strengthen ties with Ukraine, especially in the military and economic spheres.
Fourth, balancing between the West and the East. By advocating for the return of Crimea to Ukraine, Erdogan is sending a signal to NATO and Western partners about his support for international law. This is another reminder that “yes, we are, of course, a specific member of NATO, but we are a member of NATO, we just want to protect our interests first and foremost.”.
Fifth, Erdogan wants to establish Turkey as a logistical and geopolitical superhub. That is why he is leading his NATO member country into BRICS. BRICS should not be viewed as some kind of “union.” There are too many contradictions between its members, and all of them are united only by acceptable (partnership or neutral) relations with Russia. But BRICS can be considered a diplomatic platform.
That's why Ankara is getting involved. To strengthen its economic and political positions on the global level, gain additional access to Africa and Asia, and diversify its policy.
On the one hand, Turkey supports Ukraine and the West on the issue of Crimea, but at the same time is looking for opportunities to expand cooperation with BRICS, where Russia plays a key role.
Turkey seeks to obtain maximum political and economic tools, maintaining contacts with all participants in the regatta. And for this, making a statement on Crimea is a normal price. Especially since Turkey is too important for Russia now to protest in any way.
This policy is a policy of balancing opposing interests. And — we must admit — this is where Erdogan demonstrates real skill.
