With just a month and a half left until the crucial US election, Russia is actively increasing the intensity of attacks on Ukrainian cities, according to analyst Alexei Kopytko. This, he believes, is part of a strategy aimed at creating favorable conditions for the Russian campaign in 2025.
Bombings on Kharkiv, bombings on Zaporizhia, bombings on Sumy, Kryvyi Rih, Kherson, not to mention the constant attacks on cities in the Donetsk region, all fit into the pattern I outlined three weeks ago. Before the US elections, Russia has only one argument left: to increase the intensity of attacks on cities and the degree of atrocities against civilians. Because the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to fight back, and the enemy cannot break them.
Only from the inside. From the back.
Unfortunately, there is no effective antidote to these attacks.
Participants in the American elections are showing that they do not want to get deeply involved in the Ukrainian situation and make it an important part of the agenda.
There definitely won't be enough technical resources by November. There may be statements and point improvements. I want to be wrong.
Therefore: where it is possible not to ignore the alarm signals, do not ignore them. Advice for the fall was given in the spring. Whoever had time to react, had time. Now it is important not to shy away.
Everyone has seen the successes of long-range strikes on Russia. The effect of removing arsenals and ammunition depots should become apparent a few weeks after the incidents (i.e., in early October). If there are more similar successes, then the pressure on the front may decrease slightly.
There are a month and a half left. If the Russians fail to destroy the front (even if there are still territorial losses) before the elections, they will not be able to play the card of helping Ukraine as America's failure. And the tone of the conversations in November will not be the one they would like. It is in November that all the real decisions regarding 2025 will be made, both in the US and in Europe.
We will have to endure.
