The year 2024 is guaranteed to be even more turbulent for Ukraine than the previous one. And many events in it will determine whether Ukraine can defeat Russia in a war.
In the equation of war for Ukraine, the main unknown quantity, on which the final outcome undoubtedly depends, is the role of the United States of America.
American military and financial assistance, even with increased support from Europe, is the factor on which not only the combat capability of the Ukrainian army depends, but also the overall functioning of the Ukrainian state and the moral state of Ukrainian society.
After all, more than half of Ukraine's budget depends on external financing.
Dialogues about American support and analysis of forecasts for the upcoming US elections are heard not only in high-ranking Kyiv offices, but also on public transport and in the kitchens of Ukrainians both at home and in temporary housing abroad.
And it is the States that sets the trend for other states to provide or not provide assistance to Ukraine, playing the role of the first violin in the orchestra of Ukrainian allies.
It is to America that the Kremlin appeals when it tries to force negotiations on Kyiv on its own terms, diminishing Ukraine's role to one devoid of any subjectivity. Moscow still believes it can reach an agreement with Washington about Ukraine. Without Ukraine.
Joe Biden has demonstrated the opposite to this day. But his first term expires in November 2024, and by all the rules of American politics, any incumbent president, not just Biden, turns into a “lame duck” in the last year of his term.
It is noteworthy that last year Ukrainians felt what it was like to lose confidence in American support.
During the emotional discussion in the US Congress about the feasibility of Washington's multi-billion dollar aid to Kyiv, Ukrainians have already figured out the differences between the Senate and the House of Representatives, and have learned the names of their speakers and minority leaders.
The vote on providing $61 billion in aid to Ukraine has been postponed to January due to disagreements between Republicans and Democrats over the Mexican border, and a positive decision seems expected and even inevitable. Although there may be surprises here too.
Plus, this could be the last such vote in favor of Ukraine.
With the US presidential election on the horizon, Ukraine is losing confidence in further concrete support from America in the war against Russia.
The joker here is, of course, Donald Trump, who may not be allowed to participate in the elections on November 5. But if he is allowed, the eloquent Christmas greeting of the former US president, in which he wished his opponents to “rot in hell with his Ukraine and Russia,” may serve as a cold shower for Ukrainians.
And although the presidential election is not the only major event planned for 2024 in America that could drastically change the trajectory of relations between Kyiv and Washington, one way or another, most of the dates described below on the American calendar are related either to the trials of Donald Trump or to the course of the presidential campaign.
We explore the timeline of political life in the United States in 2024 in detail.
Winter. Ukraine support vote and Republican debate
on January 9, 2024. Congressmen are expected to unblock aid to Ukraine. There is no longer any discussion between Republicans and Democrats on this issue.
At least, House Speaker Johnson calls aid to Ukraine “a priority for the United States.”.
However, the problem of financing the strengthening of the southern US border with Mexico remains unresolved.
The Biden administration has taken steps toward a Republican-controlled House of Representatives. Kyiv can only wait.
10, 18 , and 21, 2024, the Republican Party's presidential candidate debates will take place.
Former president and poll favorite Donald Trump will likely skip them, just as he ignored the previous four rounds of intraparty debates.
So former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, also known as "Donald Trump 2.0", and possibly former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson will try to convince viewers of their ability to become a worthy candidate for US president.
Of them, only Chris Christie was in Ukraine – he visited Kyiv after the full-scale Russian invasion.
The absence of Republican frontrunner Donald Trump will cast a silent shadow over the debate. Meanwhile, the former president himself has stated that he would like to debate, but with Joe Biden.
Spring. Lawsuits against Trump
March promises to be a super-hot month in American politics. At the beginning of the first spring month, two events will take place at once - the trial of Donald Trump and "Super Tuesday.".
On March 4, 2024, a trial will begin on the merits of the federal criminal case "United States of America v. Donald J. Trump" concerning former President Trump's alleged involvement in attempts to overturn the 2020 U.S. presidential election, including Trump's role in the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
The grand jury has announced indictments against Donald Trump on the following four counts:
– conspiracy to defraud the United States;
– conspiracy to obstruct official proceedings;
– obstruction and attempted obstruction of official procedures;
– conspiracy to violate the rights of citizens.
The investigation believes that Trump was determined to stay in power after losing the presidential election, so he spread lies about alleged fraud during the vote, knowing that it was not true. And he tried to prevent Congress from confirming Joe Biden's victory, calling on congressmen to postpone the procedure and inciting his supporters to violence on the Capitol.
Donald Trump does not admit his guilt. His entourage calls the process an attempt to interfere in the upcoming presidential election and a “witch hunt.”.
The biggest drama now is that the expedited review of this case, which the special prosecutor insisted on, may not happen. The Supreme Court has made a corresponding decision. This may complicate the electoral process and make Donald Trump's job easier.
There is no clear consensus on whether a potential guilty plea by Donald Trump would automatically bar him from running in the US presidential election.
Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution bars anyone who has ever participated in an insurrection from holding public office. This rule was introduced in America after the Civil War to prevent secessionists from taking power.
At the same time, there are only three conditions for the possibility of running for president of the United States: the candidate must be born in America, must be at least 35 years old, and must have lived in the United States for at least 14 years. And the US Constitution does not mention the criminal record of a presidential candidate. Moreover, there were already precedents. In 1920, socialist Eugene Debs ran for president directly from prison, where he was serving a sentence for an anti-war speech that criticized America's entry into World War I.
The United States has plunged into a new season of the Trump series, which revolves around his right to run for office.
At first, the Minnesota Supreme Court refused to ban Trump from participating in the presidential race.
Then the Colorado Supreme Court banned Donald Trump from participating in elections in the state. In doing so, the court essentially recognized Trump as a participant in the January 6, 2021 insurrection.
The Michigan Supreme Court later called Trump's right to run or not a political issue, and therefore the competence of the US Congress, not the court.
Then, Maine Secretary of State Shanna Bellows banned Donald Trump from participating in the state's Republican primaries, citing the same third section of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution. Trump appealed this decision.
Now the fate of the former US president who wants to become president again must be determined by the US Supreme Court. It is tasked with deciding whether to overturn the Colorado Supreme Court's decision - and then Trump will automatically get the opportunity to appear on the ballots of all states without exception. However, for this to happen, a majority of the justices must be convinced that Donald Trump did not participate in the coup.
The so-called “Super Tuesday” on March 5, 2024 .
On this day, 15 states and territories will hold primaries to select delegates to the Republican and Democratic national conventions, which will then select their presidential candidates.
The trial of “ The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump” on March 25, 2024 .
The former US president is accused of paying secret funds to porn actress Stormy Daniels [real name Stephanie Clifford] during the 2016 presidential campaign.
The investigation believes that he sought to ensure Clifford's silence about their past sexual relationship. Clifford was at the time negotiating a television interview that could have been about her relationship with Trump.
Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen claimed that he paid the porn actress $130,000 out of his own pocket. Trump later reimbursed him for the expenses, which turned out to be classified as legal fees.
Because of this, Trump is accused of falsifying business documents.
And if he is found guilty on all counts, the maximum sentence could be 136 years behind bars.
Donald Trump pleads not guilty and accuses the prosecutor of being politically motivated.
But that's not all.
On May 20, 2024, court hearings will begin in the case “United States of America v. Donald J. Trump, Walton Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira .
This is a federal criminal case against Donald Trump, his aide Walt Nauta, and the head of maintenance at his Mar-a-Lago villa, Carlos De Oliveira, and concerns the former president's storage of classified documents at his villa.
Trump is accused of improperly handling classified documents after the end of his presidential term under the Espionage Act, as well as of making false statements and conspiring to obstruct the investigation.
Trump pleads not guilty.
Summer. NATO Summit and Formal Nomination of Candidates
The NATO summit, which will coincide with the organization's 75th anniversary, will be held in Washington on July 9-11, 2024.
However, Ukraine’s path to NATO is long and winding, as the 2023 summit in Vilnius demonstrated. There, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg promised Ukraine an invitation when “all allies agree and the conditions are met.” At the same time, he noted that full membership for Ukraine is impossible as long as the war is ongoing.
After Vilnius, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen proposed considering a so-called “hybrid membership” for Ukraine, which would involve Ukraine’s partial entry into the Alliance. First, according to this plan, NATO could accept territories controlled by Kyiv. And later, in theory, Ukrainian lands liberated from Russian occupation in the future could join.
However, at the annual final press conference, President Zelensky called such a proposal nonsense and said that Ukraine "is not being invited to NATO.".
Therefore, bold thoughts about a possible invitation of Ukraine to NATO from President Biden, which were recently heard in the Ukrainian information environment, are unlikely to materialize next year.
on July 15-18, 2024. Traditionally, the party that does not hold the White House is the first to hold such a convention and nominate candidates.
The Democratic Party will hold its National Convention on August 19-22, 2024, in Chicago.
Biden's main rival is not even Trump, but his own age - 81 years old.
There are voices that insist on supporting an alternative candidate who, in their view, may have a better chance of defeating Donald Trump. But the way things are unfolding as of early 2024 indicates that Democrats will likely nominate incumbent President Joe Biden.
However, the chair under his vice president, Kamala Harris, is shaking. And here are possible options.
Autumn. Debates and Election Day
The first debate between the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates will take place in Texas on September 16, 2024.
The second and third rounds of debates are scheduled for October 1 and October 9, 2024, respectively.
on November 5, 2024. It is still not known for certain who will participate in it. Too many factors can influence the final decision. Although the greatest chances of meeting in a political duel are old opponents - current US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump.
Even if the names of the candidates are different, it is already obvious that the struggle will be fierce. And its outcome will largely predict the conditions under which Ukraine will be able to end the full-scale war that Russia has launched against it.
