Despite the fact that Ukraine has the technical capabilities to produce its own missiles, the constant delay in establishing a regular production of military missiles is a cause for concern. Economist Pavlo Vernivskyi, who actively analyzes the situation in the defense industry of Ukraine, explains why the country, which needs powerful and modern missile systems, cannot reach the required volume of production.
Why doesn't Ukraine make rockets? I will voice my own version.
We don't make rockets not because they don't know how. If you google a little, you can see many promising developments. And OTRK "Grim-2", our analogue of "Iskander". And "Korshun" cruise missiles. Even a year ago, someone there was boasting that we had modified the Neptune missile for hitting ground targets.
So the problem is not that we can't make rockets. The problem is that we do it very slowly and not enough. And this is because we lack systematicity and prioritization. Plus — effective and high-quality management solutions to speed up development and further production. And this whole complex of issues, namely the lack of understanding and desire to intervene in the production processes, creates a situation when "the top does not understand, and the bottom cannot." And it is probably because of this that the domestic missile program is still faltering.
In general, all the problems that hinder the development and production of own missiles were observed even before the start of a full-scale invasion during all the years of independence. Ukrainian industry has been deteriorating for 30 years, much has been lost and forgotten. And some processes, from logistics connections to internal production processes, were disrupted. Everything needs to be rebuilt, but almost no one is doing it at the moment.
For an analogy, imagine that you have a car that has been in several accidents and is starting to wobble. By analogy with such a car, the mechanisms of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex work inadequately, but instead of repairing it, everyone believes that it will go on its own, it is enough just to fill it with gasoline. However, it doesn't work that way.
At the same time, the people who gave the instructions to develop the missile program believe that in order to solve the problem, it is only necessary to allocate funds and give state orders. This is where all their work ends. However, even if money is found for the missile program, as it once was for the Antonov plant, when Zelensky promised to buy its planes, this does not guarantee the rapid appearance of these missiles. Moreover, they are unable to solve many of the problems that defense sector enterprises are currently facing on their own.
For example, let's take the development process. Any industrial product is a kind of constructor, which is assembled from various parts and components. Certain parts of this conditional constructor we can import, but there are components that are very difficult to import, because the countries that own these technologies can impose restrictions on their export. In the US, the export of missile technology is regulated by a special regime — the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which limits access to these technologies to all interested parties and allows them to be supplied only to key partner countries. However, even taking into account the fact that Ukraine is now a partner of the USA, this does not mean that we automatically received permission to receive these technologies. It must be obtained separately. And this, in turn, is a political issue. That is, even in this direction, systematic work is needed, similar to that which is carried out to obtain ready-made weapons from the West. In part, it is ongoing, but it is not systematic, at the same time, for the most part, this initiative comes from below, from companies. And then politicians join her in order to promote themselves, sign some kind of memorandum - and that's it. Therefore, political work to accelerate the acquisition of this technology is not conducted at all.
In addition, manufacturers may have personnel problems. Very often, this problem is difficult to solve, because due to the degradation of the sector, there are few specialists left in the industry. Therefore, here, too, both political and managerial decisions are needed to find and train the necessary personnel. Moreover, it is also necessary to re-popularize the profession, to look for specialists from other fields or to attract foreign specialists who would cover our weak points in certain areas. This job is also not available.
It should be noted separately that problems are observed not only at the development stage, but also in production. That is, when there is already some ready-made developed weapon, but even we cannot produce it in large quantities. All this is explained by the degradation of production, loss of personnel, skills of production organization. What is there to talk about if these people cannot now create even mass production of simpler rockets for MLRS or even shells, that is, a more elementary product than technological missiles. And if we can't solve the projectile problem, then I don't think we should expect progress in the missile program, because the prerequisites for this have not been created.
I do not rule out even sabotage at weapons production, because the Russians can recruit military personnel in the same way as adjusters for missile strikes. And the participants in the process can purposefully slow down the process, telling our state officials, who are not involved in it, that it is impossible to do more and faster.
Therefore, I have doubts that these problems will be solved. If it was noticeable that the managers have a desire to solve these problems, then maybe I would have a better forecast. I don't see it now.
