Despite the fact that Ukraine has the technical capabilities to produce its own missiles, the constant delay in establishing regular production of military missiles is a cause for concern. Economist Pavlo Vernivsky, who actively analyzes the situation in Ukraine's defense industry, explains why a country that needs powerful and modern missile systems cannot reach the required production volume.
Why doesn't Ukraine manufacture missiles? I'll give my own version.
We don’t make missiles because we don’t know how. If you Google a little, you can see a lot of promising developments. And the OTRK “Grim-2”, our analogue of “Iskander”. And the cruise missiles “Korshun”. Even a year ago someone there was bragging that we had converted the “Neptune” missile to strike ground targets.
So the problem is not that we cannot produce missiles. The problem is that we do it very slowly and in insufficient quantities. And this is because we lack systematicity, prioritization. Plus, effective and high-quality management solutions to accelerate development and further production. And this whole complex of issues, namely the lack of understanding and desire to intervene in production processes, creates a situation where “the top does not understand, and the bottom cannot.” And, probably, this is why the domestic missile program is still stalling.
In general, all the problems that hinder the development and production of our own missiles were observed even before the start of the full-scale invasion throughout the years of independence. Ukrainian industry has been degrading for 30 years, much has been lost and forgotten. And some processes, from logistical connections to internal production processes, have been disrupted. Everything needs to be rebuilt, but practically no one is doing this right now.
For the sake of analogy, imagine that you have a car that has been in several accidents and is starting to break down. By analogy with such a car, the mechanisms of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex are working inadequately, but instead of repairing it, everyone believes that it will drive on its own, it is enough to just fill it with gas. However, it does not work that way.
At the same time, the people who gave the order to develop the missile program believe that in order to solve the problem, all they need to do is allocate funds and place a state order. That's all their work ends there. However, even if money is found for the missile program, just like once for the Antonov plant, when Zelensky promised to purchase its planes, this does not guarantee the quick appearance of these missiles. Moreover, many of the problems that defense sector enterprises are currently facing are not able to be solved on their own.
For example, let's take the development process. Any industrial product is a kind of designer, which is assembled from various parts and components. We can import certain parts of this conditional designer, but there are components that are very difficult to import, because the countries that own these technologies can impose restrictions on their export. In the USA, the export of missile technologies is regulated by a special regime - the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which limits access to these technologies to anyone and allows them to be supplied only to key partner countries. However, even taking into account the fact that Ukraine is now a partner of the USA, this does not mean that we have received permission to receive these technologies automatically. It must be obtained separately. And this, in turn, is a political issue. That is, even in this direction, systematic work is needed, similar to that which is being carried out to obtain ready-made weapons from the West. It is partly ongoing, but it is not systematic, at the same time, for the most part, this initiative comes from below, from companies. And then politicians join it to get PR, sign some memorandum, and that's it. So there is no political work to accelerate the acquisition of this technology at all.
Additionally, manufacturers may have problems with personnel. Very often, this problem is difficult to solve, because due to the degradation of the sector, there are few specialists left in the industry. Therefore, both political and managerial solutions are needed here to find and train the necessary personnel. Moreover, it is additionally necessary to re-popularize the profession, look for specialists from other industries, or attract foreign specialists who would cover our weaknesses in certain areas. This work also does not exist.
It should be noted separately that problems are observed not only at the development stage, but also in production. That is, when there is already some ready-made developed weapon, but even we cannot produce it in large quantities. All this is explained by the degradation of production, the loss of personnel, skills in organizing production. What can we talk about here, if these people cannot now even create mass production of simpler rockets for MLRS or even shells, that is, a more elementary product than technological missiles. And if we cannot solve the problem with shells, then I do not think that we should expect progress in the missile program, because the appropriate prerequisites have not been created for this.
I don't even rule out sabotage at weapons factories, because the Russians can recruit employees in the military-industrial complex sector in the same way as they recruit adjusters for missile strikes. And the participants in the process can purposefully slow down the process, telling our statesmen, who are not fooled by this, that it is impossible to do more and faster.
Therefore, I have doubts that these problems will be solved. If it were noticeable that the managers have a desire to solve these problems, then perhaps I would have a better prognosis. I don't see it now.
