On December 1, 2024, the “Winter Support” program, initiated by President Volodymyr Zelensky, was launched. It provides for the payment of 1,000 hryvnias to citizens who need assistance in a difficult economic situation. However, the program has caused a mixed reaction among Ukrainians, and warnings are spreading on social networks: “Think three times before taking 1,000 hryvnias.”
On the first day after the program launched, Ukrainians submitted over two million applications for money through the “Diya” application.
After ten days of the program, there were already over six million of them.
On the evening of December 10, the first applicants already received the money.
The government denies accusations of trying to establish control over people's funds, as well as other allegedly "secret" plans associated with such a large-scale program.
In addition to suspicions of attempts to control citizens' funds, other doubts and theories are also being voiced. It is possible that they have become a reason for many people to refrain from receiving money.
Together with experts and government officials, we checked to what extent those versions make sense.
“Branded” money from international partners
On December 1, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in a televised address financial support for all Ukrainians who are in the unoccupied territory of Ukraine.
"This is for everyone - for everyone: for adults, for children. On average - a few thousand per family," he emphasized.
At the same time, the authorities expect that the "Winter Support" will help the economy, since 1,000 hryvnias can be spent only on Ukrainian-made goods and services in Ukraine. The list is quite long: medicines, books, medical services, utilities, mobile communications, Ukrzaliznytsia or theater tickets, and much more.
“This will additionally support Ukrainian micro and medium-sized businesses. This is earmarked money. There is a certain circle where it can be directed,” explained Oleksiy Sobolev, First Deputy Minister of Economy for Digital Development, Digital Transformations and Digitalization.
The money from the “Winter Support” can also be transferred to support volunteers and the country’s defense. According to the president, this state program can also become a “national donation program.”.
The government explained that the thousand hryvnias each are the remaining funds received from international partners, which will not be used for other programs until the end of 2024.
The government cannot direct them to the Armed Forces of Ukraine or other military needs, as this is prohibited by the terms of international aid.
What does permission to disclose bank card data mean?
However, almost immediately after the program was launched, accusations began to be made against the government of attempts by the authorities to establish control over the movement of funds in bank accounts.
Both experts and members of parliament (mostly opposition) referred to the text of the agreement with Privatbank on the opening of a special “National Cashback” card, which will receive the presidential thousand.
Screenshots of agreements began to appear on social networks, according to which a person consents to the transfer of data on transactions for the purchase of goods or payment for services using all bank cards and permission to disclose banking secrecy.
"To receive a thousand, you are required to open a National Cashback card at any bank that participates in the cashback program. They won't give you a thousand without opening a card. And you can only join the program if you give permission to transfer data about all purchases," opposition MP Volodymyr Ar'yev writes on Facebook and shows copies of the agreement offered by Privatbank.
Photo by Volodymyr Ariev, Facebook
The state program “National Cashback” has been in effect for several months. It provides that the buyer is reimbursed 10% of the cost of the product if it is of Ukrainian manufacture. Those who joined the program earlier, by issuing a “cashback” card, also gave their consent to the transfer of transaction data. However, at that time these requirements did not cause as much fuss as they do now.
Since money from the "winter" thousand can be spent on the same goods and services as under the "National Cashback" program, the government decided that a "cashback" card is best suited for this.
“In order to guarantee where the funds will be spent, so that it is not “cash” withdrawn from an ATM, we decided that it would be faster and more correct to credit the money to the “National Cashback” card, where certain restrictions and controls are already technically set up,” Deputy Minister of Economy Nadiya Bihun explains to BBC Ukraine.
According to her, permission to disclose information about transactions appeared because otherwise “Diya” would not be able to record the purchase of promotional goods and accrue cashback.
“The government resolution clearly states that this information is transferred only for the purpose of calculating cashback, and not for any other purposes,” emphasizes Nadiya Bihun.
Photo credit: Getty Images
In fact, people who plan to receive 1,000 hryvnias were put in the same conditions as those who participate in the “National Cashback” program for 10% refunds on goods.
That is, people gave permission to access information about the transactions of all their cards at the bank where they opened the "National Cashback".
Causes of the excitement and consequences
The Ministry of Economy admits that this is what caused the excitement around the topic of transaction data disclosure.
According to the Deputy Minister of Economy, at first some banks did open a “National Cashback” card to receive 1,000 hryvnias, only on condition that the client gave permission to transfer data on other cards of the same bank.
As of today, she says, all banks except “one large bank” have changed this option. But communication with this bank is ongoing and it is possible that it will also change the settings in the banking application. She does not name which bank it is, but it is possible that it is Privatbank, which MP Volodymyr Ar'yev mentioned.
"In order to receive a thousand hryvnias, a person does not have to give permission for transactions on their cards. You can order a "National Cashback" card in the bank's application, but refuse to participate in the program itself with that name and do not give permission for the transfer of data on other cards, except for the card to which the thousand hryvnias will be credited," assures Nadiya Bihun.
On December 10, the Ministry of Economy announced that it had sent banks additional clarifications “on the inappropriateness of excessive requirements for the disclosure of bank data” during the implementation of the Winter Support program. Government officials indicated that these requirements may only apply to cases where a person wants to join the National Cashback program.
Photo by UNIAN
To date, six million people have applied for funds. In total, as predicted by the Ministry of Economy, no more than 15 million Ukrainians will benefit from the presidential thousand. But this is an optimistic forecast. A pessimistic one is 10 million.
The search for evaders and a “quasi-census” of the population
However, the topic of disclosing data on the movement of funds on customers' bank cards is not the only one being discussed on social networks and not only there. There are also suspicions that registering for assistance is an attempt to update the personal data of people currently in Ukraine and even identify people hiding from mobilization.
“We have a million men hiding somewhere. They haven’t gone abroad, they’re not disabled, they’re not reserved. If, for example, there are two men in a family who are subject to mobilization and two women, then they’ll get four thousand hryvnias. And of course, it’s possible to somehow stimulate them to receive these funds only if the amount is more than a thousand,” said Olga Vasilevska-Smaglyuk, a deputy from the Servant of the People faction, on Radio Svoboda last week.
She also believes that the "National Cashback" is designed to count how many people are in Ukraine and permanently reside on its territory.
However, such versions are questioned by scientists.
Photo credit: Getty Images
Many of those hiding from the TSK have even closed all their bank accounts, so it is unlikely that they will process the receipt of 1,000 hryvnias. The state has enough mechanisms even without the “National Cashback” to identify evaders, lawyer Volodymyr Yavorsky tells BBC Ukraine.
Since, according to government forecasts, only half of Ukrainians will use assistance under the Winter Support program, demographers also say that for this reason, talking about something similar to a census when registering people for assistance is also not worth it - you can't create a portrait of the country this way, and you can determine the population size in other ways.
Now they do this using data from mobile operators.
“This is nonsense, there is no connection between the issuance of 1,000 hryvnias and the census. And we can determine the population size anyway. There is a methodology, I believe, unique,” says Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research.
According to her, it is not only about using data from three mobile operators, but also about involving all registries in the country.
“Overall, we have more or less accurate data for Ukraine,” says Ella Libanova in an interview with BBC Ukraine.
According to the Institute of Demography, the population of Ukraine in the controlled territory is 30 million. Including the occupied territories, it is 35-36 million.
The Ministry of Economy is also surprised by the assumptions about a "quasi-census".
“Of course, we have a question about how much population we have – how many left, how many stayed. But we have a Unified Demographic Register, we can count the number of those who left Ukraine during the war. That is, I don’t know how the information from “Winter Support” can be used,” says Nadiya Bihun.
However, human rights activist Volodymyr Yavorsky believes that it is not worth completely rejecting the version about the use of the obtained data about people.
"I assume that there may be a hidden track here. You don't need to know about the entire population. Data on socially vulnerable groups of people may be useful. These are exactly the people who are most likely to want to receive the presidential thousand, and if it's a family, then several thousand," he says in a conversation with BBC Ukraine.
According to the expert, this information can be used in the future to exert targeted influence on these people through some temporary financial instruments or - more broadly - for political influence.
Volodymyr Yavorsky reminds that in many countries, election campaigns are conducted through targeting, that is, the allocation of a target audience, and verified data about certain social groups of people is very important.
“Winter Support” is not the last
In his address to Ukrainians on December 1, announcing “Winter Support,” the President stated that this would not be the last aid to Ukrainians in the winter and in general throughout 2025.
And just a few days after that, the government adopted a resolution to launch another program in the “Diya” application – “eBook”.
Young people who will turn 18 in 2024 will be able to receive assistance in the amount of 908 hryvnias to purchase books in the Ukrainian language.
The terms of receiving this money will be announced later, but it is possible that the program will also be tied to the National Cashback card.
