Continued military aid from the United States is an important component of Ukraine's strategy in the fight against Russian aggression. However, recent statements about a possible reduction in aid raise serious concerns about the stability of the situation on the front. As The Wall Street Journal notes , without new supplies of military aid, Ukraine will be able to withstand the current pace of fighting until the summer of 2025, but after that it may face serious difficulties, in particular, a shortage of ammunition.
Kyiv will also not be able to use some of its most advanced weapons.
“The large arms shipments that the Biden administration sent or contracted for in the final months of its administration should allow Ukraine to continue fighting at the current pace until at least the middle of the year (i.e. until June – Ed.),” Celeste Wallander, a former senior Pentagon official, told the publication.
Ukrainian officials say this is a “worst-case scenario,” and in that case, Ukraine would have to significantly increase its own military production and rely on greater support from Europe.
“Overall, Ukraine currently independently produces or finances about 55% of its military equipment. The US provides about 20%, and Europe provides 25%,” one Western official said.
But some American weapons, such as advanced air defense systems, ballistic missiles, navigation systems, and long-range artillery, will be virtually impossible to replace. Europe simply does not produce enough of these systems—or in some cases, none at all.
When these American supplies run out, Ukraine's ability to strike long-range and defend rear positions will be significantly reduced, officials and analysts warn.
“In theory, Europe could allocate as much money as the US, but I don’t think it would be able to cover the full range of weapons needed. In critical categories like interceptor systems for air defense, there would quickly be a shortage problem,” said Oskar Jönsson, a researcher at the Swedish Defence University.
Some experts also doubt whether Ukraine will retain access to SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet, which was partially funded by the Pentagon.
“The question is not so much about aid, but whether Trump will participate in the production of weapons for Ukraine,” said Mykhailo Samus, director of the Center for the Study of New Geopolitics. “If not, this will be a serious blow to Ukraine and Europe.”.
