According to the Institute for the Study of War in the United States, the Russians may not be really interested in holding constructive talks about the war in Ukraine. Anonymous sources in foreign media have reported that Russia is not willing to hold meaningful negotiations. Putting forward such proposals could help Russia prepare for further military action.
According to the Institute's report, the analysis shows that confidential statements to foreign media differ sharply from Russia's official position and actions. In particular, since December 2023, the Kremlin has increasingly spoken of Russia's desire to expand its territories in Ukraine and completely destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity.
Recent attacks on the Kharkiv region indicate Russia's interest in achieving maximum victory in Ukraine, not in freezing the conflict.
Thus, a ceasefire that includes recognition of the occupied territories as part of Russia would underscore a willingness to discuss Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This could create an opportunity for the Kremlin to demand further territorial concessions and challenge the idea of Ukrainian statehood.
Additionally, Russia could use the ceasefire to prepare for future military operations in Ukraine to change the regime and demilitarize the country.
The institute also believes that in the event of a victory in Ukraine, Russia could use the resources and people to confront NATO. Thus, the Kremlin could continue to be interested in negotiations to influence decisions on supporting Ukraine and obtain concessions from the West.
Citing four Russian sources, Vladimir Putin prefers to stop the war in Ukraine and achieve a ceasefire on the condition of recognizing the current front lines. He believes that the territorial gains in the war are sufficient, and any new gains would require a new mobilization, which he wants to avoid.
