According to the Institute for the Study of War in the USA, the Russians may not really be interested in conducting constructive negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine. Unknown sources of foreign media reported that Russia does not want to conduct substantive negotiations. Making such proposals could help Russia prepare for further military action.
According to the Institute's report, the analysis shows that confidential statements to foreign media differ sharply from Russia's official position and actions. In particular, since December 2023, the Kremlin has increasingly spoken about Russia's desire to expand its territories in Ukraine and completely destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity.
The recent attacks on the Kharkiv region show that Russia is interested in achieving maximum victory in Ukraine, not in freezing the conflict.
Thus, a ceasefire, which involves the recognition of the occupied territories as part of Russia, would emphasize the readiness to discuss the territorial integrity of Ukraine. This could create an opportunity for the Kremlin to demand further territorial concessions and challenge the idea of Ukrainian statehood.
Additionally, Russia could use the ceasefire to prepare for future military operations in Ukraine to change the government and demilitarize the country.
The institute also believes that in case of victory in Ukraine, Russia can use resources and people for confrontation with NATO. Thus, the Kremlin can continue to be interested in the negotiations in order to influence the decision to support Ukraine and obtain concessions from the West.
Citing four Russian sources, Vladimir Putin prefers to stop the war in Ukraine and achieve a ceasefire if the current front lines are recognized. He believes that the territorial gains in the war are enough, and any new gains will require a new mobilization, which he wishes to avoid.
