In 2024, product prices in Ukraine increased by 20%, and this trend continues in 2025. Inflation, logistics costs, the energy crisis and the impact of excise taxes on fuel are among the reasons for the price increase.
The main reasons for the price increase
- Inflation:
In 2024, inflation in Ukraine exceeded 12%. It has become a key factor in the growth of food prices. - The war and its consequences:
Lack of personnel and the need to invest in new equipment forced farmers and processors to look for alternative solutions, which increased their costs. - Energy crisis:
A blackout in the summer of 2024 forced producers to use generators. This significantly increased the cost of fuel and lubricants. - Excise taxes on fuel:
In September 2024, a law was passed on increasing excise taxes on fuel. Ukrainians began to feel its influence already in 2025 due to the increase in the price of gasoline and diesel fuel and the growth of logistics costs.
How it affects the cost of bread
According to Denys Marchuk, deputy chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, the price of bread depends not only on the cost of flour, which makes up only 30% of its cost price. The main components of the price are costs for energy resources, logistics and production equipment.
Dynamics of bread prices in 2024:
- In January, a kilogram of bread cost UAH 44.07.
- In November, the price increased to UAH 50.98.
Forecast for 2025:
Prices may increase by 1.5-2% per month, totaling more than 20% per year.
What else affects prices?
- The exchange rate of the dollar to the hryvnia: many components for production are purchased abroad, so the devaluation of the hryvnia automatically increases the cost of products.
- Logistics: due to the increase in the price of fuel, the cost of transporting goods also increases.
The factors that influenced prices in 2024 will remain relevant this year as well. A further rise in the cost of products, in particular bread, is inevitable unless comprehensive measures are taken to stabilize the economy.
Ukrainians should prepare for the fact that daily purchases will continue to become more expensive, and the issue of the availability of basic products will become increasingly acute.
