The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its forecast for the Ukrainian economy in 2025. Instead of the previously expected 3.3% GDP growth, the bank predicts only 2.5%. The main reason is the uncertainty created by Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine.
At the same time, the forecast for 2026 remains more optimistic: the EBRD expects growth of 5%, provided that a ceasefire is achieved and post-war reconstruction begins actively.
The report notes that the first quarter of 2025 showed GDP growth of 0.9%, driven by consumer spending and investment in critical infrastructure. However, the economy's real potential is limited by labor shortages, damage to energy facilities, and weak agricultural exports.
The unemployment rate has dropped to 12%, the lowest level since the war. But the formation of a reserve of personnel remains a problem due to mobilization and emigration.
Separately, the bank paid attention to foreign economic indicators. The current account deficit in January-July 2025 increased by almost 50% due to high costs for the import of energy and military goods, as well as weak exports. The state budget deficit is forecast to amount to 22% of GDP, and its coverage will be provided by external financing in the amount of about $ 40 billion. The main revenues are expected from the EU, G7 countries and the IMF, in particular, due to income from frozen Russian assets.
Inflation is gradually slowing down: from 15.9% in May, it decreased to 13.2% in August. The National Bank has been holding the discount rate at 15.5% since March to curb inflationary processes. At the same time, foreign exchange reserves reached $46 billion in August, which is enough to cover 5.5 months of imports and stabilize the hryvnia exchange rate.
The EBRD emphasizes: the further prospects of the Ukrainian economy depend entirely on the course of the war, energy security, and the continued support of international partners.
