The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has announced a revision of the Ukrainian GDP growth forecast for 2025, reducing it from 6% to 4.7%. This is stated on the official website of the financial organization.
Reasons for forecast revision
EBRD experts note that problems with electricity supply have already led to the interruption of "significant" GDP growth, which was observed for four quarters. This prompted the need to revise estimates of Ukraine's economic development for next year.
Positive forecasts for 2024
Despite the worsening outlook for 2025, the EBRD's economic forecasts for Ukraine are not unequivocally "pessimistic." Experts predict GDP growth of 3% in 2024, despite serious strikes by Russian troops on energy facilities.
Funding and challenges
Experts believe that international partners have partially covered Ukraine's needs for 2024, but the amount of funding for the following year remains uncertain. In addition, the country faces a labor shortage, as well as the risk of further destruction of infrastructure and production facilities.
GDP growth dynamics
According to the Ministry of Economy, in September 2024, the Ukrainian economy grew by 3.5% compared to August 2023. Earlier, in July, GDP growth accelerated to 2.7% after 1.6% in June, which, according to experts, was due to the early harvest. For January-July 2024, growth is estimated at 4.0% [±1%].
