The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicts that the Ukrainian economy increased by 3.5% in 2025 and by 5% in 2026, provided that the fighting was terminated. This is stated in the new report of the organization.
Updated forecast for 2025–2026
According to the EBRD, the growth of Ukraine's GDP growth in 2025 will be lower than it was expected before . The main reason for the correction of the forecast was uncertainty due to the continuation of the war and the dependence of economic recovery on the security situation.
In 2026, economic growth can accelerate up to 5% , but only if the fighting and stabilization of the macroeconomic situation are stopped .
Ukraine's economy, which increased by 3.0 percent in 2024, despite the pressure of the full -scale war of Russia, will increase by 3.5 percent in 2025 and will strengthen up to 5.0 percent in 2026, provided that the Agreement on Termination of Hymes this year is reached
In the latest EBRD Rep report, the preliminary growth of Ukraine's growth in 2025 is revised by 1.2 percentage points. In September last year, the growth was expected at the level of 4.7 percent in 2025.
"Although Ukraine entered in 2025 with external funding for a year, it faces a slowdown in economic growth and acceleration of inflation due to the consequences of the war that began with the Russian invasion in February 2022," the EBRD explained.
The continuation of the war and massive attacks of Russia on electricity infrastructure of Ukraine, according to the report, led to a shortage of electricity, forcing Ukrainians to pay high prices for imported electricity and to acute labor shortages. “The real GDP growth has slowed with more than 5.0 percent in the first half of 2024 to about 2.0 percent in the second half of the year; The total GDP for 2024 is estimated at 3.0 percent, ”the report reads.
The restoration of inflation in the second half of 2024, as noted, was due to the increase in the cost of electricity, the correction of regulated prices for utilities, the rapid increase in real wages and the depreciation of currency against the US dollar after weakening the exchange rate binding in October 2023.
Annual inflation reached 12 percent in December 2024 and probably remain at the same level in the first half of 2025 before decreasing to unambiguous figures by the end of the year
The Central Bank has reacted, doubled the discount rate from December 2024 from 13.0 to 14.5 percent, while, as it is noted, "the probable further strengthening of monetary policy".
The budget deficit of Ukraine for 2025 is forecast at 19.4 percent of GDP and is fully funded by external budget financing of $ 38.4 billion. These include $ 13.7 billion. The US from the EU within Ukraine Facility, $ 22.0 billion The US from G7 countries based on income from frozen Russian assets and $ 2.7 billion. US from the IMF.
"The negative factors that have affected the growth in the second half of 2024 will probably be preserved in 2025," the EBRD said.
On the positive side, it is reported that "the stability and adaptability of enterprises, which is well functioning the Black Sea trade corridor, strong stimulation of state consumption and increasing military procurement from domestic enterprises, will be expected to maintain economic growth."
In September, the EBRD worsened the growth of Ukraine's economy by 2025 by 1.3% to 4.7% due to damage to energy infrastructure as a result of Russian attacks.
