Over the past month, the value of Ukrainian Eurobonds has increased by 12%, which is related to investors' hopes for a possible end to the Russian-Ukrainian war in the event of Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections. The Financial Times writes about this , noting that investors hope for an increase in the economic stability of Ukraine, which will increase its ability to pay off debts.
Ukrainian bonds maturing in 2036 rose in price from 44 to 49 cents on the dollar, and GDP warrants rose even more. Ukrenergo bonds also showed strong growth, rising more than 160% to 67 cents on the dollar, despite Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
The increase occurred shortly after the completion of the restructuring of more than $20 billion of Ukrainian debt, which became one of the fastest and largest in modern history. Investors hope that Trump will be able to reach a peace agreement that will include certain territorial concessions from Ukraine, which they believe will help stabilize the country's economy.
The portfolio manager of Ninety One, Tis Louv, notes that trading in Ukrainian bonds is based on the expectation of a quick end to the war, or at least the likelihood of peace talks under Trump's leadership. However, skeptics, such as Federated Hermes portfolio manager Mohammed Elmy, stress the difficulties of reaching a quick peace deal and express doubts about the recovery of the Ukrainian economy after possible negotiations.
