Europe may not even be able to arm itself, not to mention Ukraine. This is according to The Economist.
The outcome of wars of attrition is usually determined by which side has the best military equipment. Russia's economy is almost 14 times larger than Ukraine's, but the combined resources of Ukraine's allies are far greater than Russia's. It seemed that Ukraine should be able to win . However, now that the conflict is entering its third year, it is because of the defense industry that the scales are gradually tipping in favor of the Russian Federation.
This is best seen in artillery ammunition. During the summer counteroffensive, the Armed Forces fired 7,000 rounds a day - more than the Russians. Now the Russians produce 10,000 shells per day, while the Ukrainians produce five times less.
Both America and the EU are experiencing problems with providing financial assistance. In Kyiv, they fear that inter-party conflicts and a hostile Donald Trump will lead to the fact that Ukraine will become completely dependent on Europe. At the same time, the combined military supplies of the EU countries have already surpassed the American ones, but the picture is heterogeneous. If Germany provided support for more than 17 billion euros, then France - for only half a billion.
EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton advocates the creation of a 100 billion fund to increase Europe's defense capabilities. According to him, this will not only help Ukraine, but also become insurance in case Trump withdraws the USA from NATO. However, it is not clear whether anyone else supports Breton's idea in the European Union.
One way or another, the current measures do not correspond to the urgency of the situation. This year, Russia increased military spending by 68%, to 6.5% of its GDP. Its production of artillery ammunition is estimated at 4.5 million units per year, and of long-range missiles at 100 units per month (double the amount at the beginning of the invasion).
The United States and Europe expect to increase the production of 155-mm shells to approximately 1.2 million per year by 2025. But if in the United States the government deals with ammunition, then in Europe - private companies. For example, Norwegian-Finnish Nammo says its orders have tripled compared to March 2022: an increase in production capacity so huge that the company needs government support. But competition laws in the EU prevent investment in the industrial base.
One way to speed up production in Europe could be to simplify technical requirements. For example, if it is assumed that shells will be fired from worn-out artillery pieces in Ukraine soon after leaving the conveyor, then there is nothing to ensure their long-term storage.
With long-range missiles, things are a bit more complicated: Europe has transferred to the US most of the production of engines for ammunition for HIMARS and other systems. MBDA, the largest manufacturer in Europe, reports that even if the investment is made now, the first missiles will probably not start shipping until 2026.
