After the successful attacks of Ukraine on Russian strategic aircraft and other objects, many expected to disrupt negotiations by Russia. However, they go to Istanbul because they are interested in imitation of the talking process. Ukraine really wants adequate negotiations, but understands that Russia will not go to adequate conditions of peace. Russia is trying to demonstrate one viewer that additional sanctions should not be imposed against it.
Russia is not going to complete the war on acceptable or compromise. Another circus from Medinsky and the company is expected with unacceptable conditions that Ukraine will discard and make its proposals.
For Putin, war is a "equilibrium point" for his regime. The return of the economy to peaceful rails, the return of the military, the conversion of production are risks. It is necessary to curb regional elites that have intensified during the war (unlike centralization in Ukraine, in Russia regional clans and corporate elites have strengthened, have private armies, central control weakened).
The illusion of an external enemy is comfortable for preserving Putin's regime, although it lays a bomb under Russia for a long time. To get out of the war, Putin needs an obvious victory that will outweigh the negative consequences, or a new war (but Russia is unlikely to wage several wars). It was risky to start the war, and it is very difficult to get out of it, because the new equilibrium was already formed.
Influence of sanctions and Ukrainian blows on Russia. Putin will imitate the process because it is critical to him that Trump does not impose new sanctions. The Russian economy is exhausted, additional sanctions (especially for buyers of Russian resources) can severely weaken it. Yesterday's nuclear triad strikes are unprecedented. Russia cannot quickly revive the production of these aircraft because it will take decades. It is a serious psychological blow to Russia, because it proves that the myth of Russia's endless resources and its ability to fight forever (which lives in Trump's head and fueled by Russia) is a hoax.
If the Russians set inadequate conditions (and they will exhibit), they will look less confident. This will bring new sanctions against Russia, which are spoken by American senators, Trump's surroundings and Europeans.
We have two key strategic tasks:
No. 1. Continue to drive the Russians into a loop of vulnerability. Russia is vulnerable -> it can be pressed -> It becomes more vulnerable -> it can be more affected.
# 2. To prove that Putin is not agreement and that Russia is a completely vulnerable country. Ukraine operates according to the norms of war, Russia is in line with civilian attacks. Russian threats ("we will pay", "see what we are capable of") are no longer valid - we have already seen everything. Russia has already applied everything, committed all possible military crimes and can not do anything cardinal to increase pressure on Ukraine. And there are too many external restrictions on the use of ulcers.
Two goals aimed at negotiations - to continue to demonstrate that the Russians are only in force and that Ukraine is tuned to negotiations, but from the standpoint of adequate worldview that the Russians do not have.
The best result of negotiations today is the exchange of prisoners. Normal and expected - will agree to negotiate, agree a new meeting; There will be statements that the Russians are pulling the process.
What next? The Russians will continue the summer-autumn offensive. Ukraine will hold on to its strategy - the exchange of a minimum of the territory for the maximum of Russian military resource. Announced pressure (sanctions) pressure tools must be implemented. If Trump and others really want to stop murder, they should deprive Russia of the opportunity to do them. Trends for Russia are negative. Additional sanctions or military assistance to Ukraine can accelerate their development.
Real negotiations will take place when Putin feels that the continuation of the war is a greater risk to its regime than its completion. Well or when the mode drops. Ukrainian delegation, Europeans, Britain, Turkey, most Americans understand it. It remains to convince Trump and his environment.
