Losses to the state budget of Ukraine from the shadow economy in 2024 reached a record 375–603 billion hryvnias. This is stated in the annual study "Comparative analysis of the fiscal effect of the use of tax evasion/avoidance tools in Ukraine", conducted by experts from the "Institute of Socio-Economic Transformation", "CASE Ukraine" and the "Economic Expert Platform".
Compared to 2023, budget losses increased by 21.5–35 billion hryvnias. Analysts say the main reasons for the increase are the government's delay in reforming the Bureau of Economic Security, customs, and tax services.
The most common tax minimization schemes remain salary payments in envelopes (140–280 billion hryvnias) and smuggling and “gray” imports (120–185 billion hryvnias). Experts note that these two types of violations are only growing every year and pose the main threat to fiscal stability.
Offshore schemes, according to the study, are becoming less accessible due to new international standards of tax transparency. Their volume in 2024 is estimated at 55–65 billion hryvnias. At the same time, they remain an “elite” tool, available only to large companies and wealthy Ukrainians.
Significant state losses are also recorded through value-added tax schemes. Despite the introduction of electronic administration and a risk monitoring system, the so-called "twists" - fictitious reductions in VAT obligations - amounted to 78-90 billion hryvnias last year.
In addition, experts draw attention to abuses in land and property registries. On the other hand, positive trends are noticeable in the fight against counterfeit products and the illegal market of excisable goods (alcohol, tobacco, fuel). However, even these losses remain high - at the level of 126-140 billion hryvnias.
"The most effective way to reduce the shadow economy is a complete reboot of the tax and customs system, the elimination of envelope salaries, and transparent tax administration," the study authors note.
For comparison, in 2023, the budget lost from 353.5 to 568 billion hryvnias from shadow schemes. And the current 603 billion hryvnias is more than 20% of Ukraine's defense budget in 2024.
Experts hope that after the reform of the Bureau of Economic Security in 2025–2026, the fight against "envelopes", "scrolls", and smuggling will finally become systemic.
