The situation at the front continues to be tense, in particular in the Donetsk region. Russian troops, after the capture of Avdiyivka, are actively expanding the zone of their breakthrough, advancing simultaneously in different directions. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky personally visited the units in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, declaring them the enemy's main attack points.
"Our task in such a situation is to hold captured positions at any cost and inflict maximum losses on the enemy in order to exhaust his resources and disrupt his plans, giving time to mobilize our reserves," he emphasized.
In the direction of Pokrovsk, the occupiers managed to consolidate their positions in the village of Ocheretine. The armed forces have already transferred reserves aimed at stabilizing the front. However, analysts recorded new movements of enemy troops. According to ISW data, the enemy has already advanced north of Ocheretino and west of Tonenko. Data from DeepState also indicate the capture of Novokalynovoy, Arkhangelsky, and the village of Keramik in the direction of Toretsk.
On the contrary, there is still no official information about a possible attack on Pokrovsk, but experts emphasize the threatening nature of the situation. According to the former speaker of the General Staff, Vladyslav Seleznyov, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to cut the Ocheretyn wedge, but failed due to the entrenchment of the enemy on the flanks and their expansion.
"Under the current circumstances, the enemy will not have enough resources to attack and capture Pokrovsk. However, he has the opportunity to capture the village of New York with a further attack on Toretsk. Probably, in the near future, the situation may worsen from Ocheretiny to the north," he emphasized.
For almost two months, Russian troops on their way to Kurakhovo have been actively storming Krasnohorivka, which is the closest city to Donetsk, under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). The enemy has already penetrated to the southern part of the city, where battles are taking place on the territory of the local refractory plant. According to Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesman of the Khortytsia operational-strategic group of troops, the enemy is in a blocked state at the plant and is cut off from the supply of ammunition.
According to the latest reports, Russian forces periodically conduct raids on the eastern outskirts of the city with the help of armored vehicles, but more often they are small groups of pedestrians or mobile assault groups on motorcycles.
Ukrainian troops in Krasnohorivka are favored by the topography of the area, but with a critical shortage of resources, they may find themselves in a hopeless position to repel enemy attacks. The situation in this area is becoming increasingly tense, noted expert Vladyslav Seleznyov.
“If we lose control of the refractory plant, we risk losing the entire city. The problem with resources remains key - if they are not available, we will continue to receive negative news from the front," he added.
Another extremely busy area in the Donetsk region is Bakhmutskyi. Here, as before, fighting continues on the eastern outskirts of Chasovoy Yar in the Kanal microdistrict. The "gray zone" is spreading and, judging by the maps, it has almost reached the development of the city.
Russian troops actively use corrected aerial bombs (CAB). Last week, the Associated Press agency published a video showing the scale of destruction in Chasovoy Yar, comparable to Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Despite the fact that the battle for the city began not so long ago, almost all buildings are already damaged.
Up to 25,000 enemy forces are concentrated in this direction. According to the representative of the 26th artillery brigade named after Roman Dashkevich Oleg Kalashnikov, first the mobilized Russian troops go into battle. If they manage to gain a foothold on the approaches to the city, then experienced soldiers come and create a line of fire.
The capture of Chasovoy Yar is of great importance for the occupiers, because without control over it it is impossible to continue the offensive towards Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka, Kalashnikov noted. The "Khortytsia" group claims that the fighting continues around the clock, and despite the propaganda tricks of the Russian side, they will manage to contain the enemy outside the city. Assault groups also try to cross the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas channel, but they are destroyed on the approach. The enemy's military advantage is estimated at a ratio of 10:1.
According to British intelligence, the number of attacks increased by 200% between March and April. However, despite this, Russia achieved only limited success and probably suffered heavy losses. However, Vladyslav Seleznyov expressed doubts about the possibility of keeping Chasiv Yar in the medium term.
"Of course, this will not happen immediately, but the trend is very bad. The enemy not only attacks with a direct blow in the Kanal neighborhood, but also goes around from the flanks. In the north, the situation is not so critical, but in the south (on the Ivanovo side), the enemy successfully coped with this mission," he noted.
According to the expert, if the Defense Forces cannot find resources to stabilize the front, there may be a threat of losing Chasiv Yaru.
"This does not directly mean losses due to assault strikes, but taking into account the risks of encirclement and occupation, such a scenario is quite likely," he added.
To the north of Bakhmut, the enemy is trying to reach Siversk, but so far the front line remains stable. According to DeepState, there are advances in the area of Vesele village, but these reports refer to events over a long period of time. In any case, Russian forces continue to press, and there are no positive changes in this direction yet.
Assaults are reported in the area of Bilogorivka, Zolotarivka, and Verkhnokamianka. One of the goals of the breakthrough to Siversk is to cut the Siversk ridge in order to get behind the Ukrainian forces in the Serebryan Forestry. Battles in this direction are dynamic, positions are constantly changing, and, as Nazar Voloshyn reported, tactical positions have been somewhat improved.
A little to the north near Kupyansk, Russian troops are storming the area of Kislivka, Kotlyarivka and Tabaivka along the route to Svatove (Luhansk region). The situation on the Lyman-Kupian axis is serious, where Russian forces are carrying out attacks by tank units and overrunning paratroopers from the Robotyny area (Zaporizhia region).
"Soon we can expect even more active battles. We have already lost Kislivka and Kotlyarivka, so we should not talk about them as a defense border. It is possible that we may lose Sinkivka as well. This is an alarming signal for Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Vuzlovoy. Sinkivka is the key to them, and Kupyansk-Vuzlovy, in my opinion, is the main target for the enemy in the near future," Seleznyov emphasized.
Fears about the Kharkiv region are growing, according to the commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Pavlyuk. According to him, the enemy has intentions to seize Kharkiv or Sumy, but the degree of seriousness of these intentions remains uncertain.
Subversive groups on the border have already started active actions, one of them was stopped when trying to penetrate the village of Pylna, north of Kharkiv. At the same time, the enemy group in the border Kursk region is increasing. Oleg Synegubov, the commander-in-chief of the Kharkiv region, emphasized that about 100,000 troops are needed to open a new front line, and so far there is no such concentration.
Currently, up to 70,000 troops are concentrated in the territory, and according to the reserve major of the Armed Forces Oleksiy Hetman, it is unrealistic to capture Kharkiv with such a number. However, it is worth noting that approximately the same number or even less of the enemy was involved in the area of Avdiivka and Bakhmut. And it is worth considering that such forces could not be gathered "for a smoke break".
According to the expert, these groups may be transferred to another section of the front or start tactical operations in the northeast in the Kharkiv, Chernihiv or Sumy regions. This may be an attempt to stretch the Ukrainian defense.
In the south, the Russians are trying to knock out the Defense Forces from Krynyk on the left bank of the Kherson region. However, Ukrainian troops took control of the island of Nestryga on the Dnieper. Since the beginning of May, the enemy has been trying to take it away. And although the situation currently remains stable, one should not rule out an increase in assaults in the future.
Experts note that in April the Armed Forces managed to slightly expand their bridgeheads in Krynk. As for the Zaporizhzhia region, there are ongoing battles in Robotyn and east of the village near Verbovoy. According to Hetman, we should not expect peace in the south, the fighting will continue, but the Russians are more focused not on their own advancement, but on hindering the advancement of the Armed Forces.
"I'm sure that with a sufficient supply of weapons we will be able to gain the initiative at least in the south. Therefore, in my opinion, it is not worth expecting an enemy attack from the south. They will direct all their forces to the east. According to what we observe, the main offensive attempts will be made there," he noted, without trying to predict when exactly Ukraine will be able to seize the initiative.
As for the summer offensive, it has already begun. The enemy will maneuver, change the direction of strikes, since the logic and strategy of land battles have practically not changed in the last hundred years. Therefore, one should be prepared for attempts to break through the defense along the entire front, the expert added.
At this time, Ukraine receives Western weapons, but not in such volumes as expected. Recently, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that as soon as the Defense Forces receive the necessary weapons, the enemy in the east will be stopped. Obviously, now a lot depends on the speed of deliveries.
