Analysts predict a slowdown in economic growth in Ukraine in the coming years. The main reasons for this are the labor shortage and the difficult situation in the energy sector, which affects the efficiency of production and the stability of energy supplies.
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings notes in its forecast for 2024 that the Ukrainian economy will still grow by 4%. This growth, according to analysts, is due to several factors: the recovery of trade activity in the Black Sea, high government spending and increased household incomes, which are experiencing real wage growth.
"Ukraine has demonstrated resilience and the ability to adapt to the conditions of war, but in 2025 we forecast a decline in growth rates to 2.9% due to the persistence of labor and energy shortages," Fitch analysts note.
They also add that under the conditions of a long-term and reliable ceasefire, Ukraine's economic prospects can improve significantly in 2025-2026. Restoring stability and peace will open up additional opportunities for infrastructure development, attracting investment and increasing domestic consumption.
The inflation forecast for 2025 is an average of 9.3%. The high level of inflation can also be caused by the rapid growth of wages, which, according to experts, creates additional price pressure due to the insufficient number of qualified personnel.
