Rising tensions between Ukraine and the US over peace summit and domestic politics

The Western press reported a new round of tensions between Ukraine and the United States.

There are two direct reasons for the disagreements.

The first is the position of the US leadership regarding the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland and domestic politics in Ukraine. This refers to the as-yet-unconfirmed refusal of US President Joe Biden, despite personal requests from his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, to attend the Swiss forum. Together with China's reluctance to participate, this blow could sharply reduce the significance of the event and destroy the hopes that Kyiv has placed on it.

The second point is the Americans' claims to Ukraine's domestic politics and the state of affairs in the fight against corruption. Washington did not like the removal from the power system of people who "turned out to be particularly close to Washington.".

We are talking about former Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, whose dismissal was indeed provoked, as we have already written, by his rapprochement with the American embassy.

In Ukrainian political circles, there are two different versions of what is happening and the further prospects for the development of events.

According to the first of them, the current tension in relations, like publications about it in Western media, is a "storm in a teacup." And it is caused by subjective factors.

"Over the past 10 years, a class of "professional activists" has formed in Ukraine - grassroots organizations, politicians, and journalists connected to Western structures who present themselves to Washington and other countries as the main "leaders" of the pro-European course. This is a kind of "mafia". They have established good relations with all US ambassadors who have been in Kyiv in recent years, and through them they are trying to influence the agenda of Western countries regarding Ukraine. Also, until recently, NABU was under their strong influence. However, after Sytnyk left and Kaluzhynskyi, the head of detectives, was fired, their influence on NABU weakened. The new head of NABU, Semen Kryvonos, and his first deputy, Gizo Uglava, fired detectives associated with Sytnyk and Kaluzhynskyi. In response, the activists incited the SAPO, which is headed by Klymenko, who is under their control and is associated with Kaluzhynskyi, against NABU. Plus, they recruited Kubrakov. But he was fired. That is why the "mafia" is ringing all the bells, trying to incite Washington against Zelensky through the US ambassador, and also organizing publications in Western media. But Zelensky communicates directly with Biden and all Western leaders. And they do not make any complaints to him. On the contrary, the cooperation is strategic. There are controversial issues, but they are being resolved," says a source close to Bankova.

At the same time, a source in political circles believes that the relationship between Zelensky and the Biden administration is "going downhill.".

"Zelensky is increasingly moving into the category of allies as inconvenient for Washington as Netanyahu or the European right like Polish President Duda. This applies to both domestic policy issues and possible negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, if they come to that, as well as the general course of the war and compliance with the restrictions imposed by the US. In all these aspects, the Americans need a more manageable situation in Kyiv than now under Zelensky, who does far from everything the US asks. This does not mean that Washington will make efforts to remove Zelensky from the post of president now. First, the war is ongoing and a change of power threatens destabilization. Second, the American elections are just around the corner. And Biden is unlikely to want to carry out such risky projects as a change of power in Ukraine now. Third, there is no one to replace him with yet. There was Zaluzhny, but he went into exile in London. "Therefore, Washington will most likely continue to try to somehow influence and adjust the course, but without making any drastic moves. However, the element of mistrust will increase and will affect many areas. In particular, military interaction," the source says.

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