Our source in the General Staff said that the biggest problem of the Armed Forces is lack of motivation and falling morale. Most of the military do not understand what the real goal of Ukraine is, and most importantly, what resources we have for a protracted war against the Russian army, which continues to intensify.
In the fall of 2023, the vast majority of experts agreed that Russia, as in the previous heating season, will concentrate on strikes on the energy infrastructure. However, this did not happen immediately.
In the winter months, the Russian Federation mostly attacked industrial facilities and defense industry enterprises. And when the heating season was coming to an end, the Russian army suddenly changed its tactics and seriously took up energy.
Why did this happen?
Against the background of problems with the supply of Western weapons, in particular anti-aircraft missiles, from the beginning of 2024, Russia began to actively deplete Ukrainian air defense equipment. The almost daily circling of the "Shakheds" almost throughout the territory of Ukraine was aimed not so much at giving the impression of specific goals as at drawing the attention of the Air Defense Forces.
Given the fact that as early as last summer, Russia started assembling Shaheds in Tatarstan and plans to produce 6,000 UAVs by the summer of 2025, there is no reason to talk about their possible shortage.
In parallel with the launch of the "Iranian mopeds", the occupiers actively hunted the air defense equipment itself.
For this, they used missiles of the operational-tactical class (such as the Kh-31 or Kh-59). Although these types of projectiles have a relatively short range of use (in various modifications from 100 to 300 km), they are primarily aimed at impressing air defense equipment, in particular radar stations, which must be neutralized before or during massive strikes.
"The Kh-31 is a typical anti-radar missile, and the Russians can use the Kh-59 from almost all types of their Su series aircraft, so they are used in front-line cities when the opportunity arises," aviation expert Valery Romanenko explains in a conversation with UP.
If at the beginning of last year the strikes by operational-tactical class missiles could be counted on the fingers, then since January of this year, the Russians have used more than 100 units of Kh-59 alone.
In the end, the above-mentioned factors and the shortage of Western supplies of anti-aircraft shells became apparent in the early spring. And, in fact, this is exactly what exposed energy.
The peak of the crisis can be considered the attack on the Trypil TPP. At that time, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi directly said that the station was completely destroyed because the anti-aircraft missiles to protect it ran out.
