Russia's numerical advantage over Ukraine may begin to decrease by the end of this year, according to American military expert Michael Kofman.
In an interview with Intelligencer, Kofman noted that despite the pressure Russia is putting on Ukraine, its forces are significantly depleted and face serious limitations. “It’s likely that Russia’s advantage on the battlefield will begin to diminish as we approach winter and continue through 2025,” said Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Russia who specializes in issues.
Despite this, Kofman emphasized that Russia will not be left without resources in the near future, but the pace of its offensive operations will slow significantly. This may give Ukraine hope, as the Russian advance in the east remains slow and is accompanied by heavy losses of manpower and equipment.
One reason for this is that Russia is increasingly relying on outdated Soviet equipment, which is in short supply. “Russia is using the remnants of its Soviet legacy, but the rate of production of new equipment is not keeping up with the losses on the battlefield,” said Kofman. This is forcing Russian forces to change tactics to minimize losses, but at the same time making it difficult to achieve significant breakthroughs.
Russia also faces challenges in recruiting new soldiers. The high bonuses the Kremlin offers to new recruits are a sign of the tension. For example, in July, Russia advertised pay that is comparable to American military salaries, an anomaly compared to the average salary in the country.
British intelligence has also reported high levels of Russian casualties, estimating that Russia will lose up to 1,000 soldiers a day in the winter. Despite the activity in the east, the situation remains difficult for Russian forces.
The fighting has serious consequences not only for the situation on the front lines, but also for the Russian economy. The country's budget is largely devoted to military spending, which accounts for about 40% of total spending. Although the Russian economy showed growth in 2023, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. Some analysts believe that if production slows down, the defense sector will no longer be able to support the economy, which could lead to a recession.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is developing its own defense production, creating missiles, artillery, and drones, which helps counter Russian pressure on the front.
