Although this year's grain harvest in Ukraine turned out to be slightly worse than last year's, it is enough to cover domestic demand. However, the problem lies in the quality of the grain, which will directly affect the price of flour and, consequently, bread.
This was stated in a comment to UNIAN by Yuriy Duchenko, the first vice-president of the All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers, director of Kyiv Khlib LLC.
Why is flour getting more expensive?
According to him, high-quality flour requires 2nd-class grain, which agricultural producers are reluctant to offer on the domestic market. Because of this, flour milling enterprises cannot always form sufficient batches for production. Due to the shortage, the price of flour does not decrease even during the harvest.
As of August, a ton of top-grade wheat flour costs about UAH 15,000, and the first grade - UAH 14,500. By the end of the year, the price may increase by another UAH 2,000.
" The share of flour in the cost of bread is 40%. If the price increases, this will automatically add about 5% to the cost. In general, by the end of 2025, bread may become more expensive by up to 20% ," Duchenko explained.
This leaves producers with a choice: either raise prices or reduce product quality for the domestic market.
Amid rising costs, Ukrainians are reducing their consumption of pastries, soft confectionery, and expensive types of bread. In contrast, exports of Ukrainian products are growing rapidly.
" For example, the export of our soft confectionery products has increased 8 times since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. In total, 12% of exports are soft confectionery products, and 88% are long-term storage products, bakery products and frozen bread ," said the director of Kyiv Khlib.
He also noted that European consumers are gradually moving away from frozen bread, while demand for long-term storage and functional products is only growing. It is in this area that Ukrainian producers have a chance to gain a foothold in the international market.
