Rumors spread that the energy deficit in Ukraine will increase, because forced repairs of NPP power units will occur more often due to wear and tear and constant operation of all capacities 24/7.
Prepare for the fact that there is a 90% chance of a "black winter" this year.
Massive shelling by the occupiers led to the fact that Ukraine lost 85% of its heat generation. Olena Lapenko, project expert of DiXi Group, reported this. As a result, the country currently has serious difficulties with the restoration of this generation, and the exact timing of its restoration remains unknown.
The loss of thermal and hydropower plants is a major blow to shunt generation, which normally compensates for morning and evening power consumption peaks. Even in the warm period of the year, insufficient capacity will not be enough to meet the needs of the population. Lapenko notes that there are currently no clear timelines for recovery, despite some statements by experts.
According to the DiXi Group, between 2022 and 2023, electricity consumption in Ukraine decreased by 25-30% compared to the previous period, the period before the invasion. Industry reduced its consumption by 45%, and the population by 16%. The total power generation capacity decreased from 37.6 GW to 18.3 GW. This led to a shortage of electricity in the Ukrainian energy system in the summer of 2024.
Lapenko indicated that there are three possible scenarios for this period. The first scenario assumes the absence of new attacks on the power system and a moderate temperature regime, while the deficit of electricity during peak hours will amount to 1.3 GW. The second scenario envisages a significant increase in electricity consumption due to an increase in average daily temperatures, which could lead to an electricity deficit of up to 2.86 GW. The third scenario assumes moderate temperatures with further disruptions of shunting generation, which could lead to a shortfall of 2.8 GW.
