The front may move: there is a critical shortage of people in the Armed Forces

Ukraine's military is facing a critical shortage of infantry, leading to exhaustion and low morale on the front lines, military personnel on the ground said this week — a dangerous new dynamic for Kyiv after nearly two years of a bitter, bloody war with Russia.

In recent days, in interviews on the front lines, nearly a dozen soldiers and commanders told The Washington Post that manpower shortages are now their most pressing problem as Russia regains the offensive initiative on the battlefield and ramps up its attacks.

One battalion commander of a mechanized brigade fighting in eastern Ukraine said his unit currently has fewer than 40 infantrymen — soldiers stationed in forward trenches holding back Russian attacks. According to the commander, a fully equipped battalion should have more than 200 people.
Another infantry battalion commander from another brigade said his unit was similarly depleted.
The soldiers interviewed spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly and could face punishment for their comments.
The reports of acute troop shortages come as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepares to replace his military chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, with the main disagreement over how many new soldiers Ukraine needs to mobilize.
The Office of the President of Ukraine declined to comment, referring the question to the Ministry of Defense, which, in turn, forwarded the question to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The General Staff did not respond to a request for comment.
Zaluzhny told Zelensky that Ukraine needed nearly 500,000 new troops, according to two people familiar with the matter, but the president has rejected that figure privately and publicly. Zelensky said he wanted more justification from the Ukrainian military leadership about why so many conscripts were needed, and expressed concern about how Kyiv would pay for them.
Financial aid from Western partners cannot be used to pay soldiers' salaries, and Ukraine's budget is already feeling the strain as a $60 billion aid package proposed by President Biden has stalled in Congress. Last week, the European Union approved about $54 billion in aid after it was delayed for several weeks by opposition from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
The debate in Kyiv about mobilization — and how much the country should step up — has angered soldiers on the front lines.
Battalion commander Alexander said that companies in his unit average about 35 percent of their strength. The commander of the second battalion of the amphibious assault brigade said that this is typical for units that perform combat missions.
When asked how many new fighters he received, not counting those who returned after being wounded, Alexander said that over the past five months, five men had been sent to his battalion. He and other commanders said recruits tend to be poorly trained, creating a dilemma about whether to send someone to the battlefield immediately because reinforcements are badly needed, even if they are likely to be wounded or killed for lack of know-how.
"At the root of everything is a lack of people," Oleksandr said.
"Where are we going? I don't know," he added. "There is no positive forecast. Absolutely none. It will end in a lot of deaths, a global failure. And most likely, I think, the front will fail somewhere, as was the case with the enemy in 2022, in the Kharkiv region."
In the fall of 2022, the Ukrainians took advantage of a weak point in the Russian front line, where Moscow's forces were undermanned, and managed to liberate much of the northeastern region in a quick week-long September offensive. Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to the shameful defeat by announcing mobilization in his country.
The Ukrainian parliament is considering a bill on mobilization, according to which the minimum conscription age will be reduced from 27 to 25 years. But lawmakers working on the draft law and the military admit that Kyiv has not explained well to the public why it is necessary to send more people to the front.
Instead, the message was muddled, with Zelensky and Zaluzhny publicly contradicting each other and creating the appearance of an internal struggle.
In August, Zelensky dismissed the heads of all regional military committees of Ukraine, citing corruption. But as some of these posts remained vacant, mobilization has been put on hold, a senior military official said. Commanders on the ground confirmed that few new people had arrived since the fall.
"We have direct problems with personnel," said Nikita, the deputy commander of the rifle battalion. "Because this is war, and the infantry die in defense."
“I talk with my friends, also officers in other parts, and with the infantry; the situation is almost the same everywhere," Nikita added.
The lack of ammunition and weapons is also a problem. The commander, whose unit was recently transferred to a new section of the front in eastern Ukraine, said that he received 10 shells for two howitzers. Zelenskyy acknowledged that shipments of artillery ammunition have slowed as Europe struggles to produce enough shells to meet Ukraine's needs and an aid package remains at a standstill in Washington.
The shortage of personnel can have a domino effect, Ukrainian servicemen say.
Especially in winter, when the weather conditions are difficult, the infantry should be replaced every three days or so. But because units are undermanned, deployments are lengthened — or personnel assigned to the rear are forced to serve on the front line despite being ill-equipped to do so. Troops, morally and physically exhausted from overwork, are sometimes unable to defend their positions, allowing Russia—with more manpower and ammunition—to advance.
"They need to be replaced," said battalion commander Oleksandr. "There is no one to replace them, so they sit more, their morale drops, they get sick or freeze. They expire. There is no one to replace them. The front part is cracking. The front is collapsing. Why can't we replace them? Because we don't have people; no one joins the army. Why doesn't anyone join the army? Because the country did not tell people that they should join the army. The state failed to explain to people that they should join the army. Those who knew they had to go, have all already run out."
Serhii, 41, a platoon commander fighting in Avdiivka, the site of Russia's most intense attacks, said he and his men are rarely returned after only three days. More often, five days pass, or even 10.
Dmytro, another deputy battalion commander in another brigade, said his infantrymen usually get two days off after five to 10 days of detention, and since most of his soldiers are over 40, their lack of physical training adds to the problem.
“You can feel it; people are exhausted both mentally and physically," Serhiy said. "It is very difficult, weather conditions, constant shelling. They have a very strong influence on the human psyche."
The lack of rotations is a problem for all the Ukrainian military, not just for line infantry. Soldiers may get a few days off to go home and see their families, but rarely more. They say they still have the motivation to fight the Russian invaders, but they also need rest and more men around.
Zelensky also asked the military and parliament to prepare a law on the demobilization of those who have been fighting for almost two years. Members of parliament working on the bill said they were discussing a plan to release or "demobilize" soldiers who have been at the front for 36 months. But for this it would be necessary to send people to replace them.
"Every soldier thinks about that guy who walks in the Dnipro, or in Lviv, or in Kyiv," said Mykyta. "They think about them and also want to rest. Of course, the thought arises in their heads: some guys are just hanging out there, and we are here."
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