The outflow of population from Ukraine in 2025 does not stop, and the pace of this process may be even greater than the National Bank predicts. In the July Inflation Report, the regulator estimated the possible number of those who will leave the country this year at 200 thousand people. However, the executive director of the Center for Economic Strategy, Hlib Vyshlinsky, believes that the real figure may exceed 300 thousand.
He said the main reason for the new round of migration was the increase in missile and drone attacks on large cities. Russia has shifted its focus from energy infrastructure to defense industry facilities and military targets, which are often located in densely populated areas. This poses a direct threat to the civilian population and encourages families to travel abroad.
International migration lawyer Oleksandr Fedortsov adds that most Ukrainians currently leaving the country come either from occupied territories or from regions close to the front line. Massive shelling and the use of drones play a significant role, which increases the level of danger in cities. He is convinced that the only effective way to influence the scale of departure will be to end the war and create conditions for safe residence.
Managing Partner of EvrikaLaw JSC Andriy Shabelnikov notes that while it is impossible to completely stop migration, the state can reduce its scale if it focuses on three areas: improving security, creating economic incentives, and developing social programs. This may include supporting small and medium-sized businesses in relatively safe regions, building affordable housing, and restoring damaged infrastructure.
However, the president of the All-Ukrainian Association for International Employment, Vasyl Voskoboynyk, is pessimistic. He recalls that even after 2014, Ukraine was unable to solve the problem of providing internally displaced persons with housing and jobs, and now, when the economy has lost almost a third of its volume, one should not expect large-scale positive changes in the short term. In his opinion, the outflow of Ukrainians will continue at least until the end of the war.
Thus, 2025 may be another peak in the wave of migration that began with the outbreak of a full-scale war, and the actual scale of departure may be much greater than official forecasts.
